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INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

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The United States is heading into winter with distillate fuel stocks near multiyear lows. Distillate is the family of fuels that includes both diesel and home heating oil. Diesel hit $6.59 a gallon on 21 September, and Maine is already reporting heating oil at $5.77. If you heat a home or a church building with oil, kerosene, or propane, fill your tank, get your burner serviced, and set up a safe backup heat plan in October, before the cold weather pushes prices higher.

Key Judgments

• Highly Likely: Residential heating oil prices will open the 2026 to 2027 heating season well above last winter, with the sharpest increases in New England and the rest of the Northeast.

• Likely: Distillate inventories will stay below the five-year low through the end of the year, leaving little cushion if a cold snap, a refinery outage, or more trouble in the Strait of Hormuz hits.

• Likely: Fuel dealers in the Northeast will fall behind on deliveries to will-call customers during the first hard cold stretch.

• Possible: The federal government will release part of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve this winter. Two Maine senators have asked for it, and no release had been announced as of this writing.

• Possible: Home fires and carbon monoxide (CO) poisonings will rise as families turn the thermostat down and use space heaters, kerosene heaters, and generators to cover the gap.

Why This Winter Is Different

Diesel and heating oil come out of the same part of the refining process. When one gets tight, so does the other. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the national average diesel price at $6.59 a gallon on 21 September, up $2.78 from the same week in 2025. A 28 September piece in Fortune, written by Vidya Mani for The Conversation, lays out the supply picture: more than six months of war with Iran and the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries that intensified through 2026, and Russia suspending diesel exports in July. The article says that loss of supply “is expected to lead to higher energy prices for consumers in the coming winter.”

The EIA said the same thing in its 9 September Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency forecast U.S. distillate inventories to fall below 100 million barrels in September and to “remain below the five-year (2021–2025) low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027.” It added that “low inventories may also contribute to higher prices for residential heating oil in the Northeastern United States,” with the effect sharpest in fall and winter, when refiners make less distillate and households burn more of it. The EIA’s weekly report for the week ending 11 September put distillate stocks at 107.9 million barrels, 13 percent below the five-year average.

Keep in mind that these numbers come in before the heating season starts. The EIA pauses its residential heating oil price survey from April through September and restarts it in October. The last reading, on 30 March 2026, was $5.535 a gallon. On 31 March 2025 it was $3.670.

What the Northeast Is Already Seeing

Maine is the early warning state, because about half of Maine households still heat with oil. The Maine Department of Energy Resources survey reported heating oil up 74 percent from a year ago, and Maine Public reported the statewide average at $5.77 a gallon on 24 September. The Natural Resources Council of Maine estimates Maine households could pay up to $1,260 more this winter than last, and $390 million more across the state. Jack Shapiro, the council’s climate and clean energy director, told Maine Public that Maine is more exposed to heating oil price swings than anywhere else in the country.

On 22 September, Senators Susan Collins and Angus King asked the president to release fuel from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve. The Department of Energy says the reserve holds about one million barrels, with 200,000 of those barrels stored in South Portland. No Department of Energy response had been reported. A million barrels sounds like a lot until you set it against a national distillate stock of about 108 million barrels. A release would ease a regional price spike for a short stretch, and families should plan as if it never comes.

Help for low-income households runs through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). Congress funded it at $4.045 billion for fiscal year 2026, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. I could not confirm next year’s funding level, so if someone in your family or your congregation will need help, get the application in through your state agency or local community action agency as soon as it opens.

Church Buildings

Many older church buildings run on oil-fired boilers, and a lot of them sit mostly empty from Monday to Saturday. That makes the church the building most likely to get caught short. Talk to your pastor and your trustees now about three items. First, fill the church tank in October, not after the first cold Sunday. Second, set a firm minimum temperature for the building during the week so the pipes don’t freeze. A burst pipe in a fellowship hall costs more than a winter of heating oil. Third, write down who checks the building during a cold snap, and how often.

If your church plans to open as a warming center, treat it as a safety operation. Put CO detectors in any room where a fuel-burning heater runs. Keep space heaters out of classrooms and nurseries. Assign a volunteer to walk the building every hour to check heaters and doors. Know which people in your congregation heat with oil or kerosene and live alone, and put someone’s name next to each of theirs for a phone call when the temperature drops. Your safety team already knows how to run a check-in list, so hand them this one.

Threat Assessment

Households and churches that heat with oil, kerosene, or propane carry the most exposure this winter, and New England, New York, and the rest of the Northeast carry the most of all, because oil heat is common there and the EIA expects low inventories to push residential prices up. The primary concern is cost. It is highly likely the heating season opens with oil above $5 a gallon in the Northeast, and a family on a fixed income can burn through a monthly budget in two deliveries. The secondary concern is supply timing. With inventories below the five-year low, it is likely that one hard cold stretch or one refinery outage will put dealers behind, and will-call customers get served last. Injury is the third concern. It is possible that home fires and CO poisonings will rise as people improvise heat to save money. Set your posture now: fill early, service the burner, put in CO detectors, write a one-room plan, and get the church building on the same schedule.

Biblical Lens

“Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest.” (Proverbs 6:6–8, ESV)

“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” (Proverbs 22:3, ESV)

The ant fills her stores while the weather is still good, and nobody has to order her to do it. October is our harvest window for fuel. The danger in Proverbs 22:3 is already in the EIA data and in the Maine price survey, and the prudent man acts on it before the first cold snap instead of after.

Leave a comment and tell us how you heat your home and what your backup plan is. Share this brief with your family and your preparedness group, and pass it to whoever handles the building at your church.

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INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

I spent years wearing an Avon gas mask on SWAT. I trusted it, and I still do. When MIRA sent me its C21 to review, I expected to put it on, shoulder a rifle, and find the same problems I have found with other masks. I was skeptical enough that I told them so.

Then I shot with it.

MIRA sent me the C21 for this review. They did not buy a favorable opinion, and I have used other MIRA masks that I did not like. I purchased my Avon myself. The recommendation here comes from wearing these masks and seeing how they work with my equipment. I did not conduct a laboratory test of their protective performance.

The problem I have always had with gas masks

Put on most gas masks and try to get behind a rifle optic. The filter or the side of the mask gets between your face and the stock. You end up tilting the rifle, stretching your neck, or changing a shooting position you have practiced for years. I can make it work with my Avon C50, but it feels awkward. When I bring the rifle up, the stock can catch the filter and push the mask down.

The C21 has a narrower shape around the cheek. I can bring the rifle up, get a normal cheek weld, and see my optic without fighting the mask. I can also shoot from my other shoulder, including the side where the filter sits. That was the biggest surprise in this review. I have worn gas masks for roughly 35 years, including operational use, and this is the first one I have used that lets me shoot that comfortably from either side.

If I expected to wear a mask while carrying a rifle, I would reach for the C21. I did not expect to say that about a mask other than my Avon.

What the Avon still does better

The Avon C50 is a more comfortable mask against my face. I know how it feels after long wear, and I trust the system because I used it in the field. The C21 facepiece feels stiffer to me. That may sound minor when you first put it on, but comfort changes after you have been wearing a mask for hours.

The Avon is also lighter as a bare mask. Avon lists the C50 at 490 grams. MIRA lists the C21 at 615 grams with its fabric harness. Those figures do not include a filter. With the larger filter I used, I could feel the weight pulling down on the C21. That is one of the things I want MIRA to improve.

Communication is another Avon advantage in my setup. My C50 has a voice projection unit, and you can hear the difference when I switch masks in the video. The C21 has a speech diaphragm, but my voice still sounds muffled compared with the Avon and its electronic amplifier. If I were giving commands to a team, that difference would matter to me.

So I am keeping my Avon. If I wanted the more familiar, comfortable mask and did not need to shoulder a rifle, I would probably wear it. I am fortunate to own both, so I can make that choice.

What I like about the C21

Besides the rifle fit, I like the wide visor. Some masks leave you looking through two little eye openings, and that can feel restrictive. The C21 gives me a much more open view. It also fits with my helmet and gear. MIRA offers small, medium, and large sizes, which is a welcome change from a universal size mask when you have a head like mine.

The C21 uses a standard 40 mm filter connection, but the filter is sold separately. I used MIRA’s NBC-77 SOF filter in the review. Choose a filter for the specific hazard you are preparing for and check its instructions and expiration information. A mask and filter only help when they fit, seal, and are appropriate for what is in the air. An air purifying respirator does not supply oxygen, so it is not equipment for walking into an oxygen deficient environment. OSHA explains those limits here.

MIRA describes the visor as resistant to ballistics. I would not treat that wording as a substitute for dedicated ballistic eye protection without a specific test standard that applies to the protection you need. My praise for this mask is based on how it fit and performed while I wore it, especially while shooting.

What if $530 is too much?

At the time of this review, MIRA lists the C21 mask at $529.95 before a filter. That is a lot of money. An Avon setup can cost considerably more once you add the parts you need, but prices and configurations vary, so compare complete setups rather than a mask body against a package with accessories.

I would skip the cheap mask with two small eye openings that I show in the video. I have a hard time getting it on, the view is restrictive, and I would not choose it for this use. The less expensive full visor mask I show may be a basic emergency option if it actually fits and seals on your face and you pair it with the correct filter. I would not choose it for long wear or serious rifle use. If that is what your budget allows, learn its limitations and practice with it.

My choice

The Avon remains a refined mask with better comfort, less weight on my face, and a communications setup I already own. For me, the C21 wins when I need to shoulder a rifle. It lets me keep a natural shooting position from either shoulder, and that is something I have wanted from a protective mask for a long time.

MIRA still has work to do on comfort, weight balance, and voice amplification. Even with those complaints, I can recommend the C21 to someone looking for a properly fitted mask who expects to use a rifle while wearing it. Make sure you select the right size, verify the seal, and choose the filter for the hazard. A mask sitting in a box that you have never worn with your gear is an unknown when you need it.

My MIRA link is in the video description. It is an affiliate link, so if you buy through it, I receive a small commission at no extra cost to you. That helps me buy products for future reviews, including the ones companies do not send me.

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INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

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In the space of about 48 hours last week, the governments of Poland, France, the Netherlands, Finland, Lithuania, and Switzerland each issued public warnings about Russian escalation against Europe. Warnings from individual European officials have become routine over the past two years, and they usually come one at a time or on the sidelines of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit. These came from leaders in their own capitals, on ordinary working days, one after another. French President Emmanuel Macron called party leaders and presidential candidates into the crisis room at the Élysée Palace for a briefing on classified intelligence, then ordered his government to prepare a plan protecting critical infrastructure and the most sensitive defense sites against drone and cyberattacks.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk started the sequence by warning that Russian drones or missiles could enter the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank in the coming months and cause destruction, and Macron called that assessment sound and well documented. The Dutch prime minister said it was no coincidence that Tusk was speaking out so strongly and that the warning had to be taken very seriously. Germany is preparing its hospitals for mass casualties, Lithuania has updated its plans for evacuating civilians, and Finland’s president told his country it was worth preparing mentally for something to happen, including sabotage and Russian drones.

On September 18 the Swiss Federal Council adopted a new national security strategy with 46 measures against hybrid threats, cyberattacks, drones, and missiles, including preparation for a possible armed attack on Switzerland. Nine days earlier the chief of the Swiss armed forces, Benedikt Roos, said publicly that Switzerland is in Russia’s sights and that many Swiss people have not yet grasped the seriousness of a crisis he considers imminent. Switzerland has held to neutrality for roughly five hundred years. It broke from that tradition in 2022 to join sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, and the new strategy ties the current danger to the security deterioration that invasion set in motion. Swiss voters go to the polls on September 27 in a referendum on the country’s neutrality.

These warnings follow a year of Russian activity inside NATO territory. On July 30 a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed into a field near Tarnawa-Kolonia in eastern Poland, and Warsaw determined that the missile had been manufactured near Moscow in the second quarter of this year. NATO jets have shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania, a Russian warship fired flares at a Danish military helicopter, and German authorities concluded that Russian intelligence was behind an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport. A count cited by Politico put officially attributed Russian hybrid incidents in Europe at 100 between January and August, up from 60 over the same months last year, and a senior NATO official told the outlet the real number is likely above 200.

United States intelligence assessments reported in August concluded that Vladimir Putin could test NATO with a limited attack on an alliance member in the coming years, in forms ranging from a cyberattack to a small land incursion. Later that month Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow and warned Russian officials against attacking NATO members, with particular emphasis on Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The closest precedent is November 2021, when CIA Director William Burns traveled to Moscow to warn the Kremlin against invading Ukraine, less than four months before Russia invaded.

NATO has said publicly that it sees no imminent threat of attack. Lithuania’s foreign minister said his government held the same intelligence Tusk cited about a possible Russian operation carried out under a foreign flag, that the information dated to July, and that he viewed the wave of public statements as a coordinated campaign to warn Moscow against a miscalculation. Coordinated public disclosure of intelligence is the same method Washington and London used in the months before the 2022 invasion, when they published what they knew about Russian preparations in an effort to deter it. Several of the governments involved this time are also putting money into hospitals, civilian evacuation, infrastructure protection, and air defense.

On September 15 federal prosecutors in Manhattan unsealed an indictment charging five men with conspiracy to finance terrorism and murder-for-hire conspiracy. The Justice Department describes them as part of a Russian intelligence network that paid, or tried to pay, people inside the United States to conduct surveillance and carry out targeted killings, including a plot against a prominent Russian dissident believed to be living in Washington, D.C. The defendants include a former Russian intelligence colonel and his son, along with two Cubans and one Venezuelan, and all five remain at large. Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Eisenberg said the network tried to recruit U.S. citizens to carry out killings for the Kremlin. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has used the same method in Europe and the United States, hiring local criminals for surveillance and violence so the work is harder to trace to a foreign government.

The United States is fighting its own war at the same time. Major combat operations against Iran began on February 28, a spring ceasefire and a June memorandum of understanding both broke down, and fighting resumed in July with the Strait of Hormuz as the main flashpoint. The U.S. Navy has reimposed its blockade on Iranian shipping, and the President said last week that he faces a decision on returning to large-scale strikes. In the Pacific, China has shifted its pressure on Taiwan toward coast guard and civilian vessels, with Taiwanese authorities counting 1,247 of them near the island since May, while Taipei plans a record defense budget for 2027.

Nobody outside a handful of governments knows whether any of this becomes a war between the United States and another major power, and a Christian family can prepare without that answer. In a war of that size, the effects reach an American household through prices, supply shortages, pharmacy shortfalls, and infrastructure failures long before anything kinetic touches the continental United States. Most families never prepare for that version of a war. They picture something cinematic and conclude it sits outside their control, so the parts they could have controlled go unbought and unplanned.

I spent close to thirty years in law enforcement reading indicators, and the method transfers to this work. Start from the household systems that would fail during a major conflict, then fix them in order of cost and consequence. For almost every family, water and medication come before generators and ammunition.

The rest of this article covers what a major war does to an American household and what to do about it, in order of priority. The Scripture section sits at the end deliberately. Readers who are not believers can work through the practical material on its own terms, and the reasoning at the end will land better once the preparation itself looks ordinary.

What a major war does to an American household

Prices and supply shortages

Wartime economies reorganize around the war. Manufacturing capacity gets redirected, shipping lanes close or reroute, and marine insurance rates move first because underwriters price risk faster than governments act. At the consumer level this shows up as sharp price increases on imported goods and intermittent availability in specific categories rather than uniformly empty stores.

The American version during the Second World War included ration books, price controls, and government allocation of fuel and rubber. A modern version would more likely arrive as purchase limits at the retail level and allocation decisions made quietly between manufacturers and distributors. Distributors do not announce those decisions publicly, so the first indication available to a household is an empty category on a shelf that was full the week before.

The electrical grid and municipal water systems

I rank this vector highest for American households, and it carries the strongest public sourcing of anything in this article. In February 2024 the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the National Security Agency (NSA), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) published joint advisory AA24-038A. The advisory confirms that a People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-sponsored group known as Volt Typhoon has compromised the information technology environments of multiple critical infrastructure organizations, primarily in the communications, energy, transportation, and water and wastewater sectors, across the continental United States, its territories, and Guam.

The authoring agencies assess with high confidence that these actors are positioning themselves on information technology networks in order to move laterally into operational technology assets and disrupt their functions. They describe their concern as disruptive or destructive attacks during a period of geopolitical tension or military conflict with the United States. Reporting on the advisory noted the group had gone undetected inside some environments for more than five years.

Three federal agencies have stated in writing that a foreign government has placed operators inside the systems that run American electricity and water, and that the purpose of the access is disruption during a conflict. A household plan for extended loss of power and municipal water addresses a documented capability rather than a hypothetical one. Everything in the water, food, and communications sections below exists to cover that specific scenario.

Chinese laboratories operating on American soil

I have reported on this before. It belongs in a war preparation article because it describes a delivery mechanism that requires no missile, no port of entry for military cargo, and no declaration of war.

In late 2022 a code enforcement officer in Reedley, California followed up on a garden hose running through a warehouse wall and found an unlicensed laboratory inside. The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party investigated and reported that the facility was run by a PRC citizen who was a wanted fugitive from Canada carrying a 330 million Canadian dollar judgment against him for stealing American intellectual property. The committee found that he had been a senior official at a PRC state-controlled company with links to military-civil fusion entities, and that the operation received millions of dollars in unexplained payments from PRC banks. Investigators catalogued thousands of labeled, unlabeled, and encoded potential pathogen samples including HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and COVID, a freezer marked Ebola holding sealed bags consistent with how the site stored high-risk material, and close to a thousand transgenic mice engineered to mimic the human immune system.

The committee also documented how the federal government responded. It found that the FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) initially declined to investigate despite repeated calls from local officials, and it recorded accounts of CDC staff hanging up on those officials mid-conversation. The site was found by a city employee doing routine code enforcement work, not by any agency tasked with biological detection.

The activity did not end in Reedley. In early 2026 the FBI and the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department announced that the same operator was linked to a similar laboratory in Las Vegas. The matter was raised on the floor of the House, where the Las Vegas site was described as running under the same limited liability company and the same Chinese nationals as the California operation.

A separate case ran through Michigan. In June 2025 the Justice Department charged Yunqing Jian and Zunyong Liu, both citizens of the People’s Republic of China, with conspiracy, smuggling goods into the United States, false statements, and visa fraud. The charges involved Fusarium graminearum, a fungus that causes head blight in wheat, barley, maize, and rice and whose toxins cause vomiting, liver damage, and reproductive defects in humans and livestock. The complaint alleges that Jian received Chinese government funding for her work on the pathogen and that her electronics held material describing her membership in and loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party, and that Liu carried the material through Detroit Metropolitan Airport concealed in his backpack.

Plant pathologists interviewed after the charges were announced disputed the agroterrorism characterization. They noted that Fusarium graminearum does not appear on the federal list of plant pathogens designated for heightened regulation and that the organism has been present in the United States for well over a century. The smuggling, the visa fraud allegations, and the foreign government funding are documented in the criminal complaint. The weapon framing is contested among the scientists who work with the organism, and both of those conditions hold at the same time.

For household planning purposes, these cases establish two conditions. Biological material tied to foreign state interests has been moved onto American soil and operated here with minimal federal reaction. In the best-documented case the discovery came from a local building inspector, which means a family should assume that official warning of a biological event will arrive late or not at all, and should keep the supplies described later in this article on hand before any announcement.

Pharmaceutical supply

Most finished drugs consumed in the United States depend on active pharmaceutical ingredients produced overseas, with China and India carrying a large share of the upstream chemistry. A shipping disruption, an export control, or a sanctions regime reaches the pharmacy counter within weeks. Generic antibiotics, blood pressure medication, insulin supply chains, and common pediatric formulations all sit downstream of that chemistry. Families with a chronically ill member face the tightest timeline in the house and usually carry the least awareness of it.

Fuel and freight

Diesel allocation governs almost everything downstream of it. Groceries, pharmaceuticals, and municipal services arrive by truck, and in a declared emergency diesel goes first to defense and agriculture. A regional diesel shortage empties grocery stores faster than consumer panic buying does because the resupply trucks stop arriving while the shelves are being cleared.

Conscription

Selective Service registration remains a legal requirement for men aged eighteen through twenty-five. Actual conscription requires Congress to act and the President to sign, a slow and politically expensive process, which puts it well down the probability list. It belongs on the list because the families it reaches are reached completely, and because the conversation with a nineteen-year-old son goes better when it happens before any letter arrives.

Churches as targets

Wartime raises the value of soft targets for anyone conducting sabotage or intimidation inside the United States. A church sits unguarded by default, publishes its meeting times, and fills with people at a known hour. Everything I teach on the security side of my work applies harder during a war than during peacetime, and safety teams should expect their posture to be tested rather than assume the front door stays a low-interest location for the duration.

Nuclear and radiological

Strategic nuclear exchange remains the lowest-probability item on this list and carries the highest consequence. The preparation for it costs very little and takes one afternoon, which is why it appears here at all. It does not deserve to dominate your planning time or your budget, and the section below keeps it proportionate.

Water and food

Water fails first and costs the least to fix. Store one gallon per person per day and set thirty days as the floor, which comes to thirty gallons for one person and one hundred twenty for a family of four. Rotate stored tap water every six months, or buy commercially sealed water and skip the rotation. Add a gravity filter rated for bacteria and protozoa, plus unscented household bleach at a concentration of 5 to 6 percent sodium hypochlorite for chemical treatment.

Food storage works best when it runs on what your family already eats. Buy two of every shelf-stable item on your normal grocery run for eight weeks and you will reach a thirty-day supply without a single specialty purchase. Layer long-term staples on top once the thirty days is secure: rice, beans, oats, pasta, cooking oil, salt, sugar, and canned protein. Set ninety days as the goal for a wartime scenario rather than the thirty-day floor used for a storm, since wartime shortages run in months.

Write down what you have and where it sits. A pantry inventory sheet taped inside the door takes ten minutes to build and prevents the two failures that ruin most food storage, which are buying duplicates of items already on the shelf and finding expired cases you forgot you owned.

Medication and medical supplies

Call your physician and request ninety-day fills on every maintenance medication in the house. Many insurance plans allow this through mail order at a lower cost than thirty-day retail fills, and the request takes one phone call. Where a ninety-day fill is refused, ask specifically whether an early refill is permitted so you can build a rolling one-month buffer over the course of a year.

Stock over-the-counter depth in four categories: fever and pain reducers in both adult and pediatric strengths, oral rehydration salts, antihistamines, and anti-diarrheal medication. Dehydration from a gastrointestinal illness kills more people in austere conditions than the underlying illness does, and a box of oral rehydration salts costs a few dollars. Buy ten packets per person.

Keep trauma supplies in a separate bag from illness supplies. A trauma kit with tourniquets, pressure dressings, and chest seals solves a different problem than a shelf of cold medicine, and storing them together means digging through cough syrup while somebody bleeds. Take a Stop the Bleed course or equivalent tourniquet training rather than relying on the device alone.

Build a family medical binder holding each person’s diagnoses, current medications and dosages, allergies, immunization records, physician names, and insurance information. Print it on paper and keep it with the trauma kit. During a grid-down event the version stored on a phone becomes unreachable.

Household response to a biological event

Buy one box of twenty N95 respirators and two boxes of one hundred nitrile gloves, and store them somewhere you can reach without electricity. Choose in advance which room becomes the sick room, which bathroom the sick person uses, and which adult serves as the designated caregiver, so that exposure concentrates on one person rather than spreading through the whole family.

Food and water already in the house provide the deepest protection available against a communicable outbreak because they let you stop shopping. Every trip to a grocery store during an outbreak is an exposure event, and thirty to ninety days of supply converts that from a daily risk to an occasional one.

Buy two digital thermometers and one pulse oximeter. Both cost under thirty dollars together, both produce objective numbers instead of guesses, and both let you give a physician something usable over the phone when clinics are overwhelmed. Keep household bleach on hand for surface disinfection at the dilution printed on the bottle, and write that dilution on an index card taped to the bottle so nobody has to work it out under stress.

Communications

Build a Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency (PACE) plan for your family and write it on paper. Cell phone serves as primary, text messaging as alternate because texts often get through when voice calls will not, family radio as contingency, and a physical rally point as the emergency fallback requiring no technology.

Family Radio Service (FRS) radios require no license and work at short range. General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS) requires a Federal Communications Commission (FCC) license with no exam, and one license covers your entire immediate family. Apply for the GMRS license this month while the process stays routine, then run the radios often enough that your spouse and children operate them competently before a situation demands it.

Receive-only capability carries more weight in a wartime information environment than transmit capability does. A shortwave receiver, a scanner programmed to your local public safety frequencies, and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather radio together cost less than a decent rifle optic, and they let you hear what is happening when the internet runs degraded or censored.

Choose one out-of-area contact several states away and have every family member memorize that phone number. Local circuits saturate before long-distance circuits do, and a single distant relative acting as a switchboard solves the problem of everyone trying to reach everyone simultaneously.

Money

Hold cash in small bills, inside the house, somewhere you can reach in the dark. Electronic payment systems fail during infrastructure attacks and banks close during liquidity events, and a hundred-dollar bill does nothing at a gas station running on a cash box. Keep twenties, tens, fives, and ones.

Reduce revolving debt ahead of any anticipated disruption. Wartime inflation combined with a variable-rate credit balance raises your monthly obligation at the same time your purchasing power falls, and every dollar of obligation you remove now is a dollar you do not have to earn during a period when earning may be harder.

Keep your emergency fund in a form you can access within one business day. Precious metals have a legitimate place in a diversified household balance sheet, and anyone telling you to convert your savings into coins because a war is coming has coins to sell. Treat that pitch the way you would treat any other sales call.

Nuclear and radiological protection

Three variables govern radiological protection: distance from the source, shielding between you and the source, and time spent exposed. Every practical measure below adjusts one of those three.

Fallout decays rapidly and predictably. The rule of thumb used by emergency planners holds that for every sevenfold increase in time after detonation, radiation intensity drops by a factor of ten. Two days of sheltering removes the large majority of the hazard, so the correct action in the first forty-eight hours is to get inside, move to the most interior and lowest part of the structure, and stay there. Evacuating into fallout on the first day places you outdoors and stationary in traffic during the highest-intensity window.

Potassium iodide (KI) saturates the thyroid so it cannot absorb radioactive iodine. It protects one gland against one isotope. Buy a supply for each family member, store it with the medical binder, and understand its single function so you do not treat it as general protection against radiation.

Identify the best-shielded space in your home this month, whether that is a basement, an interior bathroom, or a center hallway. Put a case of water, a radio, and a flashlight in it now so the space is ready without a scramble.

The young men in your family

Have the conversation now if you have a son between sixteen and twenty-five. Selective Service registration already applies to young men in that age range, and he should know what it is and confirm that he has done it.

The just war tradition in Christian thought developed through Augustine and Aquinas and was refined for centuries afterward. It gives a framework for evaluating whether a particular war is just: legitimate authority, just cause, right intention, proportionality, reasonable prospect of success, and last resort. A young man who has worked through that framework before anyone asks him to serve makes a better decision than one working through it in an induction line, whether he concludes he should serve or concludes he cannot.

I worked in a profession that required a willingness to use force, and I do not treat that willingness as the moral problem. The moral questions are what the force accomplishes and who directs it. Teach your sons to ask those two questions rather than to answer them reflexively in either direction.

Propaganda and the family information diet

Wartime information environments are manipulated by every party with an interest in the outcome, including our own government and including outlets you currently trust. Artificially generated audio and video have made fabricated evidence cheap enough to deploy at scale. Public verification of any individual claim gets harder at exactly the moment when the stakes of believing a false one go up.

Choose two or three primary sources for your household and use them to check everything else. Primary means the actual document: the CISA advisory rather than an article about the advisory, the Justice Department press release rather than an aggregator’s summary, the congressional report rather than the commentary on it. Both major cases described earlier in this article are documented in primary sources that anyone can pull up and read in ten minutes.

Teach your family three indicators that a story has been manufactured. It demands an emotional reaction before it supplies any verifiable fact. No named source or document can be located behind it. Every outlet carrying it uses identical phrasing, which indicates a single origin point rather than independent reporting.

What to do this month, in order

1. Store thirty gallons of water per person and buy a gravity filter. Under one hundred dollars and finished in a weekend.

2. Call your physician and request ninety-day fills on every maintenance medication.

3. Withdraw cash in small bills and put it somewhere in the house you can reach in the dark.

4. Buy two of every shelf-stable item on your next eight grocery runs.

5. Apply for the GMRS license, buy two radios, and run one drill with your family.

6. Write the family medical binder and the communications plan on paper.

7. Identify your shelter space, stock it, and drive your rally point routes once.

8. Extend your food stores to ninety days and add a backup power source sized to your refrigerator and any medical equipment in the house.

The order runs cheapest and highest impact first. Items one through four cost less for most families than a single night out.

Where Scripture comes in

Everything above works for anyone who does it. What follows explains why I do it and why this work sits inside Christian teaching rather than alongside it.

Jesus addressed this situation directly. In Matthew 24:6-8 and again in Luke 21:9-11 he told his followers they would hear of wars and rumors of wars, and in the same breath he told them not to be alarmed. Both instructions arrive together. He said the wars would come and he said panic was the wrong response to hearing about them. Every prepper I know who burned out took the first half of that instruction and never got to the second.

He also closed the door on timelines. Matthew 24:36 says no one knows the day or the hour. That verse is the reason this publication carries no prophecy chart and no prediction, and the reason I treat anyone selling a date as a man with something to sell.

Preparation carries a long biblical record. Genesis 41 has Joseph storing grain through seven years of abundance against seven years of famine, directed by God through a dream given to a pagan king. Proverbs 22:3 and 27:12 both describe the prudent man seeing danger and taking cover while the simple keep walking and pay for it. Nehemiah 4:16-18 has the builders working the wall with a weapon at hand and a trumpet ready to call scattered work parties to a rally point, which is the same layered communications plan described earlier in this article, written down roughly twenty-five hundred years ago. First Timothy 5:8 states the obligation to provide for your household in language that leaves no room to treat preparation as optional.

The harder instruction concerns the people on the other side of the war. Matthew 5:44 and Romans 12:17-21 tell believers to love their enemies and to refuse to repay evil with evil. Wartime propaganda is built to make that impossible, and a Christian household under mobilization has to guard against the point where legitimate defense turns into hatred of a people. You can prepare against a government’s capabilities while remembering that the Chinese Christians being persecuted by that same government are your brothers.

I store water and food because Scripture commands provision for a household. My confidence rests on Psalm 46:1-3, which describes God as a refuge while the earth gives way and the mountains fall into the sea. The supplies run out at some point for every man who stores them, and the question that remains is what he has behind them.

If you are working through this list, tell me where you are in the comments. I want to know which of the eight items your family has already done and which one you keep putting off, because the ones people put off are usually the ones I need to write about next. If you have a question about a specific medication, a radio setup, or a shelter space in your own house, put it below and I will answer as many as I can.

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Civil unrest is not hyperbole. We have watched it unfold in real time in cities like Minneapolis and Portland, and it will happen again. The smartest move is always avoidance. If you can stay away from unrest, do it. Social media platforms like X make it easy to see where riots are forming so you can route around them.

That said, many Christians do not have the luxury of avoidance. Some live in affected neighborhoods. Some minister there. Some attend church there. When avoidance is not possible, preparation becomes necessary. This article outlines what I personally keep in a go bag when moving through areas experiencing civil unrest, and why each item earns its place.

Food and Basic Sustainment

I keep a single MRE in my bag. Not for comfort, and not for long-term sustainment. It is there in case I get separated from my vehicle or delayed longer than expected. It is compact, durable, and easy to eat while moving.

This is not a camping bag. One meal is enough to bridge a short disruption without adding unnecessary bulk.

Get MRE’s Here

Respiratory Protection and Crowd Control Agents

If unrest escalates, chemical agents are almost guaranteed. Law enforcement primarily uses CS gas, CN gas, and OC pepper agents. All three will incapacitate you quickly if you are unprotected, and panic is what gets people hurt.

A gas mask is non negotiable in this environment.

Improvised setups like goggles and cloth masks do not work. Covering your mouth while leaving your eyes exposed guarantees failure. Cheap full face masks may offer limited protection, but quality varies widely.

I use an Avon gas mask. This is the same standard used by military and most SWAT teams for a reason. It seals properly, protects against common riot agents, and allows you to keep moving without panic. Training filters are sufficient for this role. You do not need expensive WMD filters for civil unrest.

If budget is a constraint, a basic Mirrored full face mask can work, but expect limitations. Avoid small dual eye port designs. They restrict vision, increase claustrophobia, and perform poorly under stress.

The moment you see crowds becoming aggressive or chemical agents deployed, don the mask immediately. Seal check it, then move.

My Masks:

AVON Mask (It’s the gold standard, but it’s $700, save money and go MIRA if you have a normal sized head, see below)

MIRA Mask The C21 is the mask I have been suing lately. It is about $300 cheaper than the Avon and is a little better for shooting while wearing it.

Clothing, Decontamination, and Hygiene

Once you pass through CS, CN, or OC, you are contaminated. Expect a second exposure later when you shower if you do not plan ahead.

I keep a plastic bag in my pack for contaminated clothing. Before entering my vehicle, I strip outer layers and bag them. Underwear is not necessary to remove. Hair will still carry residue, so plan for discomfort later.

When you get home, take a cold shower. Let the water run over your face and body before using soap. It will burn. Stay calm and wash thoroughly.

The key is understanding that discomfort is temporary. Panic makes everything worse.

Concealment and Blending In

Standing out in a riot is dangerous. I carry a shemagh for concealment and versatility. It allows me to cover my face, protect my neck, and blend into crowds without drawing attention.

I also carry neutral attire. Plain pants, plain shoes, a normal jacket. Nothing political. Nothing tactical. Nothing that signals affiliation. The goal is to look like someone trying to get home, not someone making a statement.

I keep various patches and identifiers that allow flexibility if needed. Press markings, neutral symbols, and flags can help shift perception depending on the environment. Use discretion and judgment.

Less Lethal Options

I carry pepper spray in two forms.

Bear spray offers distance and wide area coverage. It is inexpensive and effective, especially for creating space.

I prefer POM pepper spray for controlled use. Their home defense model provides reliable deployment without excessive bulk. It is affordable and effective.

Once deployed, remember that you are contaminating yourself as well. Plan accordingly.

BUY POM pepper spray here

Firearms and Defensive Posture

I do not openly display firearms during civil unrest. That draws attention from both crowds and law enforcement.

I carry concealed, on body. No slings, no rifles, no visible weapons. The objective is avoidance and movement, not engagement.

If defense becomes unavoidable, you already understand the gravity of that moment. Until then, stay low profile.

What I carry (Click the link to see and purchase):

Glock 19 gen 5 MOS

Speer Gold Dot Ammunition

T Rex Holsters

Mobility and Safe Havens

Your priority is movement. Listen to police commands when dispersal orders are given. They will funnel crowds away from danger areas.

Churches can be effective temporary shelters. Most will help someone seeking refuge until unrest passes. If necessary, you can assist in securing the building, but that is rarely required.

Keep moving toward safety without drawing attention.

Pro Tip:

I use a program called ATAK if I have like minded people in the area to communicate securely.

Supplemental Tools

My bag also includes distraction and signaling tools.

I carry flashbang simulators and smoke. Flash devices can create space if a crowd becomes aggressive. Smoke can be used for signaling or screening. White smoke is preferable, as it resembles tear gas and often causes people to disengage.

These tools are not cheap, so use them sparingly and intentionally.

FLASHBANGS can be ordered here

Armor and Bag Selection

I use a Vertx bag with a Premier Body Armor insert. It looks like a normal backpack while providing ballistic protection. This protects against stray rounds without advertising armor.

I recommend a bag that does not scream tactical and allows rapid access to your mask and essentials.

Here is My Setup:

Armored Vertx Gamut 22L Sling Bundle

Final Thoughts

Preparation does not mean seeking conflict. It means acknowledging reality and refusing to be caught unready.

Keep your kit simple. Keep it legal. Keep it discreet.

Above all, pray for your country. Pray for those trying to live ordinary lives in unstable places. Stay alert, stay humble, and get home safely.

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📺 Watch the Full Video Briefing on YouTube

BLUF

Iranian cyber actors are actively targeting the control systems that run American water treatment, fuel storage, and electrical distribution, and federal agencies assessed in early September that more attacks are being prepared as retaliation options against United States military action. Water utilities in at least twelve states were already hit in late July. Your family should be able to go two weeks without municipal water, gas station fuel, or grid power, starting now.

Key Judgments

• Highly Likely: Iranian-aligned cyber actors will conduct additional operations against United States critical infrastructure in the coming weeks.

• Highly Likely: Water and wastewater systems remain the most exposed sector because the equipment is internet-connected, cheap, and often running default passwords.

• Likely: Any significant American or Israeli strike on Iranian energy infrastructure will be followed by a corresponding cyber operation against American infrastructure within days.

• Likely: The next successful attack produces localized service loss lasting hours to days rather than a regional or national outage.

• Possible: Fuel distribution is disrupted in a specific region through manipulation of tank monitoring systems, producing shortages at the pump without any physical damage to the fuel supply.

What Happened in July

Between 26 and 27 July, more than thirty community water systems in Minnesota were hit in a coordinated attack. On 30 July the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a joint warning that cyber actors had remotely accessed water and wastewater infrastructure in at least seven states, causing a loss of monitoring and control functionality. By 4 August the number had grown to twelve states, including Michigan, Georgia, South Dakota, and New Jersey.

The worst of it was in Georgia. Clayton County Water Authority had a pump station shut down, which dropped water pressure across part of north Clayton County, raised the risk of contamination, and produced a boil water advisory for residents. Nobody got sick. But a foreign government reached into a county water system and turned off a pump, and the people affected found out about it from a notice telling them to boil their drinking water.

What the Government Is Saying Now

This is where I have to tell you something about sourcing. Intelligence bulletins on this activity have been circulating to federal, state, and local authorities and to private sector security partners, and they have not been released to the public. I have seen them. I am not going to publish restricted technical material, and there is no need to, because the assessment in those documents is backed by reporting any of you can look up yourselves.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Intelligence and Analysis assessed in early September that Iranian cyber actors are likely preparing attacks against American energy sector entities with vulnerable networks. The reason given matters more than the assessment itself. These operations give Tehran a way to hit back at the United States when it cannot reach us with its military, and the trigger named is American strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Four more bulletins on the same actor went out between 11 and 14 September.

On 2 September, NBC News reported that Iranian hackers had expanded beyond water into telecommunications and energy, citing four people with access to government and industry threat information. The attempts had not succeeded at that point. Two days before that report, a Telegram channel presenting itself as a voice for Iranian cyber operations announced that the United States would soon see critical events in the energy, water, and telecommunications industries, and said its earlier warnings had been ignored.

Why Iran Goes After Water and Fuel

Iran cannot fight the United States military. It can reach a water plant in a town of four thousand people. That is the entire logic, and it has been Iran’s approach since the CyberAv3ngers group defaced a water controller outside Pittsburgh in November 2023.

The equipment they are hitting is called a programmable logic controller, a small industrial computer that opens valves, runs pumps, and reads tank levels. CISA issued an advisory on 7 April naming Iranian-affiliated actors exploiting internet-exposed controllers, including Rockwell Automation and Allen-Bradley units, across water, energy, and government facilities. Think of one of these controllers as a light switch with an internet connection and no lock on the door. Nothing sophisticated is required to flip it. The country has more than 150,000 water systems, most of them run at the city or county level with no cybersecurity staff at all.

What This Looks Like at Your House

You wake up on a Tuesday and the water pressure is low. By noon your city puts out a notice to boil water before drinking it, and the notice does not say for how long. The grocery store sells out of bottled water by two in the afternoon. Your gas station has bags over three of the six pumps because the fuel management system is showing tanks it cannot verify, and the station owner will not dispense from a tank he cannot read. None of this is a collapse. It is a bad four days in one county, and it is exactly what the July attacks produced.

That is the scenario to prepare for. Not a grid-down year. A regional interruption of water, fuel, and card payment systems lasting somewhere between a day and two weeks, arriving with no warning, and ending when technicians get the controllers back under manual operation.

What to Do This Week

Store one gallon of water per person per day for fourteen days, which is fourteen gallons for one person and fifty-six for a family of four. Fill containers this week rather than buying bottled water during the event. Keep a method to treat water on hand, either a filter rated for bacteria and protozoa or unscented household bleach with the ratio written on the container.

Keep every vehicle above half a tank as a standing habit. Store fuel in approved containers up to whatever your state and local fire code allows, and rotate it with stabilizer. Keep cash in small bills, because the payment systems at the pump run on the same networks. Sign up for your water utility’s emergency notification system today, and find out now whether your utility issues alerts by phone, text, or email.

Threat Assessment

The overall threat level for Christian Warrior Prepper readers is ORANGE (High). It is highly likely that Iranian cyber operations against American infrastructure continue, and likely that they intensify following any escalation in the military conflict. The primary concern is municipal water service, where exposure is widest and where attacks have already produced measurable service loss. The secondary concern is regional fuel availability, where manipulation of tank monitoring could cause shortages without any actual shortage of fuel.

I assess it as unlikely that any single Iranian cyber operation produces a national or multi-region outage lasting weeks. Their demonstrated capability is opportunistic exploitation of poorly secured equipment, which limits them against hardened targets and leaves them effective only where defenses are thin. That limitation is why your posture should be readiness for a short regional interruption rather than a long collapse, and why the fourteen day standard is the right measure for this threat.

Those of you who have been reading the Weekly Roll Call have heard this from me since we started trading fire with Iran. The government analysts have now put the same conclusion in writing.

Biblical Lens

The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it. (Proverbs 27:12, ESV)

The warning has been issued. Federal agencies have published it, the attackers have announced it themselves on a public channel, and twelve states have already lived through a version of it. Joseph did not store grain in Egypt because he panicked. He stored it because he had been told what was coming and he had seven years to act. You have less time than that, and the cost of acting is a few hours and the price of water containers.

Leave a comment below and tell me what your water storage situation looks like right now. Share this with your family and with your preparedness group, and make sure the people in your circle who depend on a small municipal water system see it.

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Christian Warrior Prepper exists for a specific reason. We talk about preparedness and self reliance, but through a Christian lens. This is not about fear, politics, or rejecting authority. It is about understanding reality, understanding Scripture, and acting responsibly.

For years, I have told people to train like nobody is coming to help you. That phrase unsettles some people, but it reflects a pattern we see repeatedly in real events. When violence happens, help may be delayed, constrained, or absent altogether. That reality forces an uncomfortable question. Where does our trust actually rest?

Scripture answers that question clearly.

The Reality of Government Response

Modern Christians are often taught, implicitly or explicitly, that safety is primarily a government function. Call 911. Wait. Help is coming.

Sometimes it does. Sometimes it does not.

Recent history shows repeated failures of leadership during moments of crisis. Political pressure, fear of optics, and weak command decisions have all resulted in delayed or absent response while innocent people were harmed.

This is not an attack on individual officers. There are many good men and women in uniform who want to do their jobs. The problem is leadership. When leadership fails, it directly impacts the safety of ordinary citizens.

If your personal safety plan depends entirely on rapid, decisive government intervention, you are building on an assumption that may not hold when you need it most.

Misplaced Trust According to Scripture

The Bible does not tell us to despise authority. It does warn us against placing our trust in it.

Psalm 146:3–4 says:

Put not your trust in princes, in a son of man, in whom there is no salvation. When his breath departs, he returns to the earth; on that very day his plans perish.

This passage is not anti government. It is a warning against misplaced confidence. Human systems are temporary. Leaders are mortal. Policies change. Institutions fail.

When people build their sense of safety on institutions alone, disappointment is inevitable.

When Leaders Fail Their Duty

Scripture also speaks directly to leadership that protects itself rather than those it is responsible for.

Ezekiel 34:2–4 says:

Son of man, prophesy against the shepherds of Israel. Prophesy, and say to them, even to the shepherds, Thus says the Lord God: Ah, shepherds of Israel who have been feeding yourselves! Should not shepherds feed the sheep? You eat the fat, you clothe yourselves with the wool, you slaughter the fat ones, but you do not feed the sheep. The weak you have not strengthened, the sick you have not healed, the injured you have not bound up, the strayed you have not brought back, the lost you have not sought, and with force and harshness you have ruled them.

This is a sobering indictment. Leadership that prioritizes self preservation, politics, or appearance over protection leaves people exposed.

When that happens, Scripture does not tell the people to sit quietly and hope for better leadership. It calls for discernment and responsibility.

Personal Responsibility Is Biblical

The Bible does not support passivity in the face of visible danger.

Proverbs 24:11–12 says:

Rescue those who are being taken away to death; hold back those who are stumbling to the slaughter. If you say, “Behold, we did not know this,” does not he who weighs the heart perceive it? Does not he who keeps watch over your soul know it, and will he not repay man according to his work?

This removes the excuse of inaction. When danger is visible and preventable, God expects action. Waiting indefinitely for permission or assistance that may never come is not presented as a moral defense.

Preparedness is one expression of stewardship. Training, planning, and readiness are ways of honoring the responsibility God places on individuals to protect life.

What This Does and Does Not Mean

This is not a call to vigilantism. It is not a rejection of law enforcement. It is not an argument for chaos.

It is a recognition that government has limits, and that Scripture never instructs believers to outsource responsibility for safety entirely to the state.

Christians are called to be sober minded, self controlled, and ready. That includes physical readiness, situational awareness, and the ability to act when others cannot or will not.

A Call to Prayer and Preparation

We should pray for our country. We should pray for leaders to act with courage and wisdom. We should pray for those being persecuted for their faith around the world.

At the same time, prayer does not replace preparation. Scripture holds both together.

Train. Prepare. Care for your family. Help others when you can.

Trust God fully, and do not confuse that trust with dependence on systems that were never meant to save you.

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INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

If the cellular network went down today, how would you communicate with people across your community?

That is the question I wanted to answer when I tested the Retevis RT97L portable GMRS repeater. I set up the repeater, took a Baofeng AR-152 Pro handheld radio with me, and drove through the surrounding area to see how far I could maintain communication.

I deliberately used a handheld radio instead of the 50 watt mobile radio installed in my vehicle. Most people in a family, neighborhood, church, or preparedness group will probably use handheld radios during an emergency. I wanted the test to reflect what an average person might experience with equipment they can carry.

The results showed that the RT97L can substantially extend the reach of a handheld radio. They also confirmed that terrain and obstructions can have a greater effect on your signal than the number of miles involved.

Five Miles in One Direction

In one area, I was able to communicate through the repeater from approximately five miles away using only the handheld radio.

That is useful coverage for a portable communications system. Five miles could allow you to communicate with family members, church members, neighbors, or other members of a preparedness group spread across a community.

However, I could not reach the same distance in another direction.

The difference was what stood between the handheld and the repeater. Buildings, hills, trees, terrain, and the body of the vehicle can all interfere with UHF radio signals. A repeater located on higher ground with a properly positioned antenna will normally provide better coverage than one placed low in a neighborhood or surrounded by obstacles.

This is why advertised range estimates should be treated cautiously. Five miles across relatively open terrain can be easier than communicating one or two miles through buildings or across a ridgeline.

Your actual coverage area will rarely form a perfect circle around the repeater. You may reach five miles in one direction and lose communication much sooner in another.

The only way to know is to test it.

Why I Used a Handheld Radio

I have a 50 watt radio installed in my vehicle, but I did not use it for this test.

A 50 watt mobile radio connected to an exterior antenna should outperform a handheld radio being used inside a vehicle. That would be a useful test, and I may conduct it separately, but it was not what I wanted to determine here.

I wanted to know whether a person with a portable radio could reach the repeater while moving through my local area.

The answer was yes, provided that terrain and obstructions did not block the signal.

That makes the RT97L a useful option for local emergency communications. It is compact enough to transport and can be deployed where it provides the best coverage. The antenna location will be one of the most important parts of that deployment.

Extending the Reach of Common Radios

One of the strongest benefits of a GMRS repeater is that everyone does not need an expensive or complicated communications system.

You can provide people with compatible GMRS handheld radios programmed with the correct repeater frequencies and access tones. During an emergency, those people can report what they are seeing in their areas and receive information from others.

Before using any radio on GMRS, verify that the exact model is FCC certified for GMRS operation. Being able to program a frequency into a radio does not necessarily make that radio legal for use on GMRS. Anyone transmitting should also operate under the appropriate GMRS license.

The radios should be programmed and tested before they are distributed. Each user needs to understand the basic controls, how to select the proper channel, and how to make a clear radio transmission.

You do not want people trying to program radios for the first time after the cellular system has already failed.

Local Information Can Affect Your Survival

Emergency communications are about more than checking whether everyone is safe. A local radio network can become an important source of intelligence.

People across your community could report:

• Road closures and traffic problems

• Fires, flooding, or storm damage

• Power and water outages

• Suspicious activity

• Civil unrest

• Fuel and food availability

• Police, fire, and emergency medical activity

• Areas that should be avoided

• People who need assistance

One person cannot observe an entire community. A network of people reporting from different locations can provide a much better picture of what is happening.

That intelligence can affect your decisions. It can help you determine whether to remain at home, move to another location, avoid a particular route, conserve supplies, or prepare for a developing threat.

During a serious emergency, timely information from trusted people may be instrumental to your survival.

A Repeater Does Not Create a Communications Plan

Buying a repeater and several radios is only the beginning.

Your group should establish a primary channel, an alternate channel, and scheduled check-in times. Members should know who is responsible for monitoring the repeater and how urgent information will be passed to the rest of the group.

Radio transmissions should be short and clear. Users should identify themselves, state their location when appropriate, and report what they personally observed. Rumors and unverified information can create confusion during an already stressful situation.

You should also plan for electrical failure. The repeater and handheld radios will require a reliable source of power. Depending on your circumstances, that might include batteries, solar panels, a generator, or vehicle charging equipment.

Test those systems under realistic conditions. Determine how long the repeater can operate on backup power and how you will recharge the handheld radios during an extended outage.

But the Repeater Now

Test Your Intended Coverage Area

My test showed that I could reach approximately five miles in one direction but not in another. That result does not mean everyone will get the same range.

Your results will depend on:

• Repeater and antenna location

• Antenna height

• Surrounding terrain

• Buildings and vegetation

• Handheld radio power

• Antenna quality

• Whether the radio is being used inside a vehicle

• Weather and local radio interference

Drive through the areas where your people actually live and work. Test the radios inside homes, vehicles, churches, and other likely operating locations. Mark any areas where the signal becomes weak or disappears.

You may find that moving the repeater antenna a relatively short distance or raising it higher dramatically changes your coverage.

Is the Retevis RT97L Worth Having?

Based on my test, the Retevis RT97L is worth considering if you can afford it and need to extend GMRS communications across your local area.

It will not provide unlimited range, and it cannot overcome every terrain obstacle. What it can do is give ordinary handheld radios a much better chance of reaching one another.

For a family, church, neighborhood, or preparedness team, that extended reach could keep people connected when phones and internet service are unavailable.

The equipment needs to be programmed, tested, and supported by a real communications plan. If you do that work now, a portable GMRS repeater can become a valuable part of your emergency communications system.

The ability to talk with people across your community is valuable. The information those people provide may be even more valuable.

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INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

Most of us have become dependent on the internet without realizing how much knowledge we no longer keep in our homes. Medical references, maps, repair manuals, agricultural information, educational material, and technical instructions are usually only a search away. If the internet or electrical grid goes down for an extended period, that access can disappear with it.

I wanted a backup that could store a large amount of useful information in one place and operate without an internet connection. That led me to Project NOMAD, a free, open source platform that turns a computer into a self contained knowledge and education server. I installed it on a compact computer, added a monitor, keyboard, mouse, cables, and storage case, then began downloading the resources I would want available during a long term emergency.

This system is not a replacement for food, water, medical supplies, printed manuals, communications, or practical skills. It is another layer of preparedness. If the basic needs are already covered and the budget allows it, an offline computer can preserve access to a remarkable amount of information.

What Is Project NOMAD?

Project NOMAD is an offline knowledge server designed to run on hardware you own. Once the system and selected resources have been downloaded, its main functions can operate without the internet. You access the command center through a web browser on the host computer or, when properly connected to a local network, from other devices.

The platform can organize several types of resources in one place:

• Offline Wikipedia and other reference collections

• Downloadable regional maps

• Medical, agricultural, survival, engineering, military, and repair material

• Educational courses that can be used by children and adults

• A local artificial intelligence assistant

• Notes, encryption, encoding, and data tools

• Additional applications and content collections

The software does not magically place every resource on the computer. The user chooses what to download, and large collections can require considerable storage space and time. A full Wikipedia collection with images is much larger than a text only version. Maps for every region of the United States also consume more space than maps for a single state. The computer, storage capacity, and intended mission should guide those choices.

Project NOMAD currently supports Debian based operating systems and recommends Ubuntu. Its official documentation should be checked before beginning because supported versions and installation procedures can change.

The Computer I Put Together

My system is built around a Minisforum compact computer. I paired it with a portable monitor, folding wireless keyboard, mouse, the required cables, and a Pelican style protective case. The entire setup cost approximately $1,100. I bought all of it myself, and no manufacturer supplied the equipment.

There are less expensive and more expensive ways to approach the project. Someone who only wants maps, reference books, and basic educational content may not need a powerful machine. Local artificial intelligence requires more memory and processing power, especially if faster performance or larger models are expected. Project NOMAD itself can run on modest hardware, but the added applications and local AI determine what the computer must be able to handle.

Three Project NOMAD Hardware Options

The Project NOMAD hardware guide divides its recommendations into three general levels. The right choice depends on your budget and how much you expect from the local AI. The information library, maps, and education platform do not require the same processing power as larger AI models.

Before buying a new computer, check what you already own. An older laptop, desktop, or retired office computer may be enough for the basic knowledge library and maps. Install Project NOMAD, run its built in benchmark, and see what the machine can do before spending money.

The product spaces below are reserved for the exact components and Amazon affiliate links used in each build. Prices change, so verify the current specifications before ordering.

Budget Build — $150 to $300

NOMAD Score 15–40 · Full Wikipedia, maps, and education platform at speed · AI chat with 1–3B models at 5–20 tokens/sec

These are corporate off-lease machines, and that is exactly why they are the smart buy right now. They ship with DDR4 RAM already installed, which sidesteps the DDR5 shortage completely. Buying 16GB of memory separately would cost you most of what the whole box costs.

• HP EliteDesk 800 G5 Mini BEST VALUE
  i5-9500T · 16GB DDR4 · 512GB SSD · $247

• Dell OptiPlex 3070 Micro
  i5-9500 · 16GB · 500GB SSD · $263

• HP EliteDesk 800 G5 Mini (i7)
  i7-9700T · 16GB DDR4 · 512GB SSD · $303

• Dell OptiPlex 3080 Micro
  i5-10500T · 16GB · 512GB SSD · $310

• Lenovo ThinkCentre M920q Tiny
  i5-9500T · 16GB · 512GB NVMe · WiFi 6E · $317

• Lenovo ThinkCentre M920q Tiny (i7)
  i7-8700T · 16GB DDR4 · 512GB SSD · $335

Inventory on renewed units rotates constantly. If a link above goes dead, this search will always pull current off-lease stock.

Recommended Build — $500 to $800

NOMAD Score 80–95 · The full NOMAD experience · Radeon integrated graphics run AI at 30–55 tokens/sec, fast enough for real conversation · 3–8B models

Be straight with your readers here: Project NOMAD lists this tier at $500 to $800, but Amazon pricing on 32GB DDR5 / 1TB mini PCs currently starts around $729. The DDR5 shortage is doing that. Buying the box preconfigured is still cheaper than a barebones unit plus a $360–$440 memory kit.

• Minisforum UM870 Slim ONLY PICK INSIDE THE BAND
  Ryzen 7 8745H · 32GB DDR5 · 1TB · Radeon 780M · USB4 · $729

• Minisforum UM790 Pro
  Ryzen 9 7940HS · 32GB DDR5 · 1TB · Radeon 780M · $839

• Beelink SER8
  Ryzen 7 8745HS · 32GB DDR5 · 1TB · 4K triple display · $869

• Beelink SER8 8845HS SWEET SPOT CHIP
  Ryzen 7 8845HS · 32GB DDR5 · 1TB · Radeon 780M · $939

• Minisforum UM890 Pro NOMAD TESTED · SCORE 75
  Ryzen 9 8945HS · 32GB DDR5 · 1TB · Radeon 780M · $975

Power Build — $1,000 and up

NOMAD Score 85–100 · GPU-accelerated AI at 100 to 800+ tokens/sec · NOMAD auto-detects NVIDIA cards and configures Ollama for you

Option A — All-in-one, no discrete GPU

• Minisforum AI X1 Pro NOMAD TESTED · SCORE 87 · 51.7 TOK/S
  Ryzen AI 9 HX 370 · 64GB DDR5 · 1TB · Radeon 890M · WiFi 7 · $1,535

Option B — Prebuilt desktop with the GPU already in it

• STGAubron Gaming Desktop CHEAPEST PATH TO 12GB VRAM
  Core i7 · RTX 3060 12GB · 32GB RAM · 1TB SSD · $850

Option C — Add the graphics card yourself

• GIGABYTE RTX 3060 WINDFORCE OC 12G THE ENTRY TICKET
  12GB GDDR6 · runs 7B models at blazing speed · $460

• MSI RTX 3060 Ventus 2X 12G OC
  12GB GDDR6 · $480

• ASUS Dual RTX 5060 Ti OC NEW MID-RANGE SWEET SPOT
  16GB GDDR7 · 220–490 tok/s tier · $739

• GIGABYTE AORUS RTX 5060 Ti AI Box THUNDERBOLT eGPU
  16GB GDDR7 · plugs into a mini PC, no tower required · $849

• GIGABYTE RTX 5070 Ti Gaming OC
  16GB GDDR7 · $1,150

• Gigabyte RTX 3090 Turbo 24GB (Renewed) 13B+ MODELS
  24GB GDDR6X · best VRAM-per-dollar for local AI · $1,430

Project NOMAD quotes a used RTX 3060 at $200–$300 and a used 3090 at $700–$1,000. Those are eBay and local-marketplace numbers. Amazon runs higher across the board. What Amazon buys you is return protection and Prime shipping. What eBay buys you is a lower number. Both are legitimate choices, and readers deserve to hear it that way.

Supporting Gear

Applies to all three builds. NOMAD is designed to work offline, but you still need power and a way for devices to connect to it.

Wireless access point — so devices can reach your NOMAD box

• TP-Link Omada EAP610
  WiFi 6 AX1800 · $80

• TP-Link Omada EAP650
  WiFi 6 AX3000, faster radio, same price · $80

Battery backup — protects against sudden shutdowns

• GOLDENMATE 600VA Lithium UPS
  Lithium cells outlast lead-acid by years · $160

• APC BR1000MS
  1000VA / 600W pure sine wave · $191

• CyberPower CP1500PFCLCD
  1500VA sine wave, step up for a GPU build · $240

Storage upgrades

• Samsung 990 PRO 1TB NVMe
  7,450 MB/s · $240

• Samsung 990 PRO 2TB NVMe
  For the 1–2TB Power build spec · $390

  Already Have Hardware?

  Do not buy anything yet. Project NOMAD runs on almost any x86 Linux machine — the old desktop under your desk, a retired office PC, a laptop you stopped using. Run the built-in System Benchmark after install and see where you land. The operating system is free too: Ubuntu 26.04 LTS is what the project tests on.

I originally considered permanently mounting the computer and connections inside the case. That arrangement would have been convenient, but it would also have complicated electromagnetic pulse protection because cables and external connections would need to pass through the case. I decided to keep the components packed inside and set them up only when needed.

My case will also include a small router so the server can provide information to other devices on a local network. That could allow family members or trusted neighbors to use maps, courses, or reference material from their own laptops without requiring an internet connection. Network access should be limited and controlled because Project NOMAD does not provide user authentication by default and is not intended to be exposed directly to the public internet.

Installing the System

The computer arrived with Windows, but I replaced it with Ubuntu before installing Project NOMAD. Ubuntu is a Linux operating system, and Project NOMAD’s main installation process is designed for Debian based systems.

The basic process is straightforward on paper:

1. Download the appropriate Ubuntu installation image.

2. Create a bootable USB drive.

3. Start the computer from that drive and install Ubuntu.

4. Follow the current Project NOMAD installation instructions.

5. Open the NOMAD command center in a web browser.

6. Select and download the desired maps, reference libraries, educational content, and AI models.

The installation was not impossible, but it did take patience. Anyone unfamiliar with Linux should keep the instructions and troubleshooting videos available on a second device during setup. Complete the installation while the internet is working, test every important feature, and correct any problems before packing the computer away.

Do not assume that a successful installation means the system is ready. Open the maps. Search the information library. Test the educational material. Confirm that electronic books have a compatible reader. Ask the local AI several questions. Connect another device through the router. A resource that has never been opened or tested may fail when it is finally needed.

The Most Useful Feature Is the Offline Library

The information library is the strongest part of this system. It can hold Wikipedia, medical references, books, survival material, agricultural information, engineering resources, military manuals, and other collections. The content varies in quality, and some collections are more useful than others, but the volume of information is significant.

In a long emergency, the library could help answer practical questions about nutrition, animal care, food production, equipment repair, sanitation, medicine, communications, or construction. It may also preserve educational resources for children when schools and internet services are unavailable.

I plan to add my own files to the computer, including selected military manuals and training documents that are not part of the standard NOMAD collections. A preparedness library should reflect the equipment, animals, climate, medical needs, and likely problems of the people who will use it. A person living in Idaho will not need exactly the same material as someone living on the Gulf Coast.

Some files may require additional software. During my testing, certain books were stored in EPUB format and did not open the way I expected. The file was present, but I still needed a compatible electronic book reader. This is exactly why the system must be tested before storage.

Offline Maps for Planning and Coordination

The offline maps are one of my favorite features. I downloaded every region in the United States and could view familiar areas down to the street level. These maps can support route planning, meeting location selection, neighborhood coordination, and identification of important terrain or facilities when ordinary mapping services are unavailable.

Maps are more useful when combined with local knowledge. A digital map may show roads, buildings, parks, and open spaces, but the user still needs to understand current conditions, access restrictions, bridge status, hazards, and changes that occurred after the map data was downloaded. Update the map collection during scheduled system inspections and keep printed maps for the local area as a backup.

If a printer is available, selected maps can be printed for teams or family members. Screenshots or map files may also be shared with authorized devices on a local network. Plans that involve private property, public buildings, or restricted areas must remain lawful and focused on legitimate safety, evacuation, and coordination needs.

Local AI Has Limits

Project NOMAD can run an artificial intelligence model locally, which means questions can be processed without sending information to an online service. That sounds impressive, but performance depends heavily on the hardware and model.

On my system, the local AI is slow. It works, but I would not build this computer primarily for the AI assistant. The maps and information library provide more immediate value. A higher performance computer with a capable graphics processor may run local models more effectively, but that increases the cost and power requirements.

Local AI can also provide incorrect information. It should help locate and summarize stored material, not replace medical judgment, technical manuals, qualified professionals, or verification from reliable references. During an emergency, a confident sounding error can cause serious harm. Keep authoritative documents in the library and confirm important answers against them.

Power, EMP Protection, and Redundancy

An offline computer still requires electricity. My broader plan includes protected solar generators and the cables needed to power the equipment. Batteries must be inspected and charged according to the manufacturer’s recommendations. A computer that survived storage but has no usable power source is not an effective backup.

I also intend to protect the computer, router, and accessories inside the case using shielding material or individual Faraday bags. Electromagnetic pulse protection should never be assumed merely because a product is advertised as EMP resistant. Openings, seams, cables, and improper closures can compromise shielding. Follow the manufacturer’s instructions, avoid unnecessary external connections during storage, and consider independent testing where practical.

The computer will be inspected at least once a year as part of my regular preparedness inventory. That inspection should include:

• Starting the computer and confirming that the operating system loads

• Opening Project NOMAD and testing its main applications

• Checking the storage drive for errors

• Updating the software and selected content while internet access is available

• Testing the monitor, keyboard, mouse, router, cables, and power sources

• Confirming that printed instructions and passwords are stored with the kit

• Repacking and resealing the protective storage system correctly

Printed manuals remain part of the plan. Paper does not require a battery, operating system, display, or compatible file reader. I recommend buying essential paper references first and protecting them from water and moisture. One is none, and two is one. Digital and printed resources support each other because each can fail in a different way.

Who Should Build One?

I think Project NOMAD is worth considering for people who already have their basic preparations in place and can afford the hardware without neglecting more immediate needs. Food, water, sanitation, medical supplies, shelter, practical training, printed manuals, and dependable power come first.

If money is tight, begin with printed references stored in a waterproof container. A used laptop with downloaded PDF files may be a reasonable next step. Project NOMAD becomes attractive when you want a larger, organized collection with maps, education, reference libraries, and optional local AI in one interface.

The software has a learning curve, and portions of the content are stronger than others. It is still an impressive free project. Everything is organized through one command center, and the platform can receive updates while the internet is available. That convenience saves time compared with assembling every component independently.

A Biblical View of Preparedness

Christian preparedness should begin with trust in God and responsible stewardship. Scripture does not teach us to live in panic or to pretend that hardship can never reach us. Proverbs 27:12 says that the prudent person sees danger and takes refuge. In Genesis 41, Joseph oversaw the storage of food during years of abundance so people could survive the famine that followed. Luke 14:28 teaches the wisdom of counting the cost before beginning a project.

These passages do not promise that equipment will save us or that every plan will work. Proverbs 21:31 says, “The horse is made ready for the day of battle, but the victory belongs to the Lord.” Preparation and dependence on God belong together. We can store food, learn skills, protect useful information, and plan for emergencies while recognizing that our security remains in the Lord.

Preparedness should also serve other people. An offline library may help a family treat an injury, educate children, repair essential equipment, grow food, or coordinate with neighbors. If someone else eventually finds my supplies, I want them to find a Bible with a clear note telling them where to begin. The supplies may help preserve a life, but the gospel addresses the person’s eternal need.

Christians disagree about the timing of end times events. I do not build my preparedness around confidence that I will escape every period of hardship. The Lord will take me when He decides to take me. Until then, I intend to remain faithful, care for my family, help others, and prepare responsibly for the conditions I may be required to face.

Conclusion

Project NOMAD gives people a practical way to preserve maps, reference material, educational resources, and other useful information when the internet is unavailable. My system cost about $1,100, requires some technical work, and still has quirks. It is not my first preparedness purchase, but it adds substantial capability to the supplies and printed manuals I already maintain.

If you build a system like this, install it now, test it under offline conditions, protect it properly, and inspect it every year. Pray that you never need it. Prepare so it can help your family and others if you do.

Would an offline knowledge computer be useful in your preparedness plan? Leave a comment and tell me what resources or manuals you would store on it.

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Christian Warrior Training | Christian Warrior Bible Study

INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

One rifle cannot handle every job a readiness team may face. In this video, I explain why teams need specialized capabilities and show how my Zastava RPK fills the area denial and support role in my setup. I also cover the equipment I chose, why I chose it, and the performance I have seen so far.

Equipment Used in This Setup

• Zestava RPK

  • Holosun

  • Blue Force Gear Sling

  • Texas Trigger FRT

• PWS MK18

  • Nightforce scope

• B&T APC9 (out of stock everywhere)

• Knights Armament SR15 (out of stock everywhere)

Christian Warrior Training | Christian Warrior Bible Study

INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

Your refrigerator holds four hours. A full freezer holds about forty-eight. Your well pump stopped the second the lights did, and the cell tower down the road is running on a battery that buys it a few hours before somebody has to get a fuel truck to it on roads that may not be open. That is day one, and nobody is going to come on the air and tell you it started.

That last part is the piece people get wrong. Infrastructure does not fail like a switch. It fails in pieces, in different counties, at different hours. Your power goes out Thursday afternoon and comes back at nine that night, and the county north of you never loses it. Saturday your card gets declined at the pump, so you drive to the next station and it works fine there. Tuesday the city issues a boil advisory and says give us three to five days. Every one of those events has an explanation on the local news, and every one of them gets explained. Then it is week three, you are standing in your kitchen counting cans, and it hits you that nobody ever announced anything.

That is how people lose two weeks they did not have to lose. They are waiting on an announcement that is never coming. So below is the first thirty days in order, with what you do at each one. I spent about thirty years in law enforcement running the opening hours of these things, and the pattern never changed. The dramatic failure is almost never the one that hurts you. It is the ordinary system everybody assumed would hold.

Day one, the power

Day one is almost never a full blackout. It is rolling outages and load shedding, which is a grid operator at a desk deciding who stays up. Traffic signals go dark and intersections get dangerous inside an hour. Gas stations cannot pump without power, and the few with generators build lines fast. Cell sites run on battery for a few hours and then need a generator, and that generator needs a fuel truck on roads that may or may not be passable.

At your house, the well pump stops the moment the power does. If you heat with propane or natural gas the furnace stops too, because the blower and the ignition are electric. Your refrigerator holds about four hours if you keep the door shut, and a full freezer holds roughly forty-eight.

Your first move is information, not action. You need to know whether this is a nuisance outage or the leading edge of something else, and that answer comes off a radio and out of your neighbors’ mouths, not off social media.

Then get this next part right, because it is the dumbest way people die in these events. If you run a generator it goes outdoors, well away from windows and doors, and it never runs in a garage, not with the door open and not with a fan on it. Carbon monoxide kills a few hundred Americans a year outside of fires, and it kills them quietly, in their sleep, with no warning at all. Buy a battery powered CO alarm this week. They run about twenty dollars and it is the cheapest life you will ever save.

Day three, the water

Municipal water is an electrical product. Pumps move it and treatment plants condition it, and both run on power. When system pressure drops you get a boil advisory first, and then a real contamination risk, because a system that loses pressure can pull contaminants in through cross connections. If you live in a high rise you lose water almost immediately, because the tank on the roof is pump fed. If you are on a well you lose it the moment the lights go, unless you have already solved that.

Here is the number I want written down in your kitchen. One gallon per person per day, minimum, and that figure covers drinking and basic hygiene only. It does not cover cooking. A family of four needs 120 gallons to get through thirty days. That is the number most families have never actually put on paper, and it is exactly why most water plans fall apart in week one. Freeze-dried food does not rescue you here either. Most of it needs about two cups of water per serving, so a pantry built on it raises your water requirement instead of lowering it.

Filtration and purification are two different jobs and you need both. Filtration takes out particles. Purification kills biologicals. Buy both, then run both at your kitchen sink before you ever need them, because the day the pressure drops is the wrong day to find out your filter shipped with a fitting you do not own. Calcium hypochlorite, sold as pool shock, is one of the most overlooked items in this entire space, and one pound of it treats an enormous volume of water. Verify concentration and dosing off your own product label rather than a number you read on the internet. Product strengths vary and bleach loses potency sitting on a shelf.

The Food and Water Storage Tracker in the library does this arithmetic with you. If you have never run your household’s numbers, that is your assignment this week.

Why nobody is coming to fix it fast

You have heard me talk about substation attacks before. San Jose in 2013, seventeen transformers shot out and roughly twenty-seven days to recover. Moore County, North Carolina in December of 2022, about forty-five thousand customers dark for days. One man, a rifle, an afternoon. You know that story, so I am not going to spend your time retelling it. What almost never gets covered is the part that decides whether your outage runs four days or four months, and there are two pieces to it.

The first is the equipment. A large power transformer is custom built for the site it serves, it weighs in the hundreds of tons, a great many of them are manufactured overseas, and utilities do not keep spares stacked in a warehouse. Lead times run past a year in normal conditions. Think of it like the engine in a piece of heavy equipment nobody builds anymore. It is not that the thing cannot be fixed. It is that you are waiting on a build slot in another country while the job sits.

The second is the workforce, and this is the one almost nobody plans for. Grid operators, water plant operators, truck drivers, pharmacy techs, ER nurses. Every one of them is a person with a family and a commute. When a region gets genuinely dangerous, or when the roads turn unpredictable, some percentage of those people stops coming in. I watched a version of this in my own career, and I will tell you flat out that when things get bad enough, people go home to their kids. Nothing has to be sabotaged for a system to come apart. The people who run it just make the same decision you would make.

Underneath both of those sits the just-in-time supply system. American logistics is built for efficiency, and efficiency and durability are opposites. Grocery stores carry roughly three days of stock. Fuel arrives on a schedule. Pharmacies restock daily. Payment processing sits under all of it. Pull hard on any one of those threads and the others start to move.

Day five, the money

Card networks need power and connectivity, and they fail locally long before they fail nationally. ATMs need both of those plus an armored carrier willing to make the run into your part of town. Banks close branches when their people cannot get to work safely, and that call gets made by a risk manager three states away who has never met you.

There is a second layer here that Americans have almost no experience with and the rest of the world knows well. When a financial system comes under stress, governments impose limits. Greece capped ATM withdrawals at sixty euros a day in the summer of 2015. Cyprus put formal capital controls in place in 2013. Lebanon’s banks did it informally starting in 2019, and people lost access to their own savings for years. None of those countries were at war with themselves. Your money can be completely safe and completely out of reach at the same time.

So keep cash in the house, in small bills, because nobody is making change for a hundred on day five. Work out what one month of essentials costs your household and build toward holding that in currency, and understand that cash at home becomes a security problem that has to be stored accordingly. What about gold and silver? Metals are a long horizon hedge and they are not first-thirty-days money. Nobody at a gas station is going to weigh your silver.

While you are handling paper, put your insurance policies, deeds, titles, prescription lists, and medical records into one binder you can pick up and carry. Every one of those documents currently lives on a server you are not going to be able to reach.

Jesus talked about the man who starts building a tower without sitting down first to count the cost, and about the king who marches out with ten thousand against twenty thousand without asking whether he can win. Luke 14 is not a passage about pessimism. It is about doing the arithmetic while you still have room to change the plan.

Day fourteen, the food

Two weeks in is where households separate in the open. Grocery stores are not warehouses. They carry about three days of stock, and panic buying compresses three days into three hours. The chokepoint is not the farm and it is not the harvest, because this country grows an enormous surplus. The chokepoint is the distribution center and the truck that leaves it.

By day fourteen the shelves are restocking selectively, there are purchase limits taped to the coolers, and prices have moved. The household that did nothing is now spending its daylight and its fuel standing in line to compete for what is left, and every hour of that is coming straight out of everything else it needs to be doing.

The standard is 2,000 calories per person per day, thirty days minimum, ninety as the goal. Store what your family already eats. Protein variety and fats are what separate sustainable storage from slow starvation, because rice and beans alone will keep you breathing and will not keep you healthy. Cooking fuel is the item people forget every single time, and a pantry you cannot heat is a pantry you can only half use.

There is one more decision that belongs in this section, and it has to be made long before day fourteen. Are you feeding your household, or are you feeding your household plus the neighbors and the families in your church who did not prepare? That question has a theological answer and a logistical answer, and the two of them have to agree. Episode six takes it up directly. For now, understand that 1 Timothy 5:8 sets a floor and not a ceiling. Providing for your own house is the obligation. It is not the whole assignment.

Communications

Communications does not fail on a particular day. It degrades in layers.

Congestion comes first, within minutes of any major event, because every person in the county picks up a phone at once. Text messages get through when voice calls will not, so plan to text. Site batteries run down next, in hours, and generator refueling gets deprioritized in a region that is hard to drive through. Then comes the layer Americans do not expect, which is deliberate throttling and shutdown of mobile data and internet service. That is the standard tool of governments managing internal unrest, and it has been used hundreds of times around the world in the last decade. Assume that in a serious domestic conflict, at some point and in some places, the network gets curtailed on purpose.

Your family communication plan therefore has to exist on paper. An out-of-area contact, written rally points, and check-in windows that do not depend on anybody’s phone working. GMRS and ham both have a place. A handheld like the Baofeng UV-32 covers the short range family and neighborhood layer for very little money. Starlink is a legitimate backup with the honest caveat that it needs power and it is a service, which means it is a service somebody else can restrict.

Do not neglect receiving. In an information war, hearing what is actually being said in your county matters more than your ability to transmit. A scanner and a decent AM, FM, and shortwave receiver with a bag of batteries will tell you more in the first week than every app on your phone put together. The Christian Warrior Prepper Communications Plan walks the whole layered structure and it is free. Go get it.

The roads

This is the section where my career is most useful to you, so I am going to be careful and exact about it.

Travel restrictions in a domestic conflict do not arrive as one national policy. They arrive as a patchwork. A curfew in one city, a road closure in the next county, a bridge shut down by a department making a local call under pressure. That last one is not hypothetical. On September 1, 2005, four days after Katrina, officers from Gretna, Louisiana turned back people who were walking out of New Orleans across the Crescent City Connection bridge. Gretna’s chief, Arthur Lawson, defended the decision publicly and said his town had no food, no water, and no shelter to give them. That was an American police department, in an American disaster, deciding who was allowed to cross.

The practical takeaway is short. Your decision to travel gets made before the roads close, not after. Keep the vehicle above half a tank as a standing household rule. Carry paper maps. Know two routes to anywhere you actually have to go, and know which of those routes have bridges and chokepoints on them, because a bridge is the easiest thing in the world to close and the hardest thing to work around.

If you come to a lawful checkpoint staffed by identifiable law enforcement, you comply, you keep your hands where they can be seen, you answer what you are asked, and you carry documentation that establishes who you are and where you live. There is no version of that encounter where arguing improves your day. If the people stopping traffic are not law enforcement, then you are dealing with something else entirely, and the answer is to not be there, which is a decision you make over a map at your kitchen table and not at a roadblock at dusk. The whole point of this section is to arrange your life so that on the day the roads get complicated, you have no compelling reason to be on them.

Day thirty

By thirty days your area has gone one of two directions, and you need to be honest with yourself about which one.

In the first, restoration is underway. Crews are working, some services are back, and the disruption is being managed. That is what most of American history supports, and it is what I expect in most places, most of the time.

In the second, services have turned into something that gets allocated based on who is cooperating with whom. That is the thing that makes internal conflict different from a hurricane. In a natural disaster, help comes from outside, because the outside is not part of the argument. In a civil conflict, the outside is the argument, and aid shows up slower, on conditions, or not at all.

The households that do well at day thirty are not the ones with the most equipment. They are the ones who spent week one not shopping, because they already had what they needed, and who used that week to check on neighbors, organize their street, and build the relationships that make everything after day thirty survivable. Gear buys you time. What you do with the time is the actual plan.

What to do in the next four weeks

Work in this order. Cheapest and highest impact first.

Week one. Run your water numbers on paper and store fourteen days. Buy a battery powered CO alarm. Fill every vehicle and start the half-tank rule tonight.

Week two. Two extra weeks of the food your family already eats, nothing exotic. Set aside small bills. Build the paper binder.

Week three. A filter and a chemical backup, and test both in your kitchen. A battery radio and a scanner. Write the family communications plan and hand a paper copy to every person in the house.

Week four. Cooking fuel and a way to cook outdoors. Then run the drill. Shut the main breaker off for a full weekend and live on what you have. That weekend will find gaps no checklist is going to find for you, including this one.

None of this requires the country to come apart. Every line item above earns its keep in an ice storm, a job loss, a regional outage, or the ordinary week where a water main breaks and the county says give us five days.

Joseph got seven years of warning in Genesis 41, and what he did with the warning was build storage while the harvests were still good. That grain carried a nation and eventually carried his own family. He was not given the warning so he could worry about it. He was given it so he could go to work.

Scripture says of the righteous man that he is not afraid of bad news, because his heart is firm, trusting in the LORD. Read that one carefully. It does not say the news never comes, and it does not say the news turns out to be false. It says the news arrives and the man does not move. Steady is a decision you make in advance, and the work in those four weeks is part of how you make it.

Next episode we take up the one asset nearly every believer already has and almost nobody has evaluated honestly, which is your local church. Your congregation is either the strongest thing in your plan or the biggest hole in it, and there is no third option.

Tell me in the comments which of the four weeks you are on. And if you have already run a full weekend with the breaker off, tell everybody what broke. That is the most useful thing that will be in this comment section and it is not going to come from me.

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Christian Warrior Training | Christian Warrior Bible Study

INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD FOR CHRISTIANS

Everybody who thinks about where they live thinks in miles. How far am I from the city. Miles is the wrong unit, and I measured it that way myself for a long time.

Two men live forty miles out from the same city. One sits on the interstate. The other is twenty miles off it on a county road. Same distance on any map, and completely different positions, because when a city empties out people leave on the highways and they travel the direction the highway points. Being off that road by twenty miles beats being on it by a hundred.

Eight out of ten Americans live in a city. That is the 2020 Census. Nobody voted for it and it is not anybody’s fault, and when that many people move they move along a small number of fixed lines that are already drawn on your map. The election-night map, the red states and the blue states, will not show you one of those lines.

Before I go further, I am not telling you to sell your house. I moved to Idaho and I will be honest with you later in this article about what that cost and how long it took, including the parts people do not want to hear. Anybody who tells you a zip code will save you is selling you land or selling you a course. Geography is a factor. Lot ran the geography assessment correctly and lost everything he owned, and I will get to him.

What your ground has on it

The rest of this is an inventory of your own address, and it runs on six factors. Two of them are water and food. I want to be precise about what I am asking there, because it is narrower than you think.

I am not asking how a city water system fails. That is next week, and it is a whole episode on its own. Here the only question is whether there is water on your ground you can reach without a wall outlet. Cases in the garage are a supply, and a supply runs out on a date you can calculate right now on a napkin. A well with a hand pump, a creek, a spring, or a lake inside walking distance is a source. Most men score themselves well on this factor because the garage is full, and the garage is not your ground.

Food is the same question turned outward. Not what happens when the shelves empty, which is also next week. What gets produced within a day’s drive of where you sleep. Farms, ranches, dairies, orchards, and you already know they exist, so that is not the question either. The question is whether you can name one of those people. Not the road they are on. A name.

The roads everything arrives on

Everything that keeps your town running arrives on a road, and it is a very small number of roads. The large chains supply hundreds of stores out of a single regional distribution center, which means one hub, one workforce, and one set of highways feeding an entire metro.

So look at your own town and count how many ways a fully loaded semi gets in. Not how many roads exist on the map. How many will carry the weight and the clearance. Most of you have a bridge, a river crossing, a pass, or one interstate doing nearly all of the work, and you have fewer real routes than you think you do.

Start with the distribution center that serves your grocery store. Ask a manager on a slow weekday morning. He will tell you, because nobody has asked him before. Then get a paper road atlas and mark the three routes between that hub and your town. An hour of work, and you have your supply picture.

What your sheriff has

This is the section I have standing to teach, because I spent about thirty years inside it.

It is two in the morning and there is somebody in your barn. You call it in. Dispatch takes the information and puts it out over the air, and tells you a deputy is on the way. Now count who is out there to take it.

Picture a sheriff’s office and most people see a building full of deputies. Three quarters of the sheriffs’ offices in this country have fewer than fifty sworn deputies, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, and the middle of the pack is sixteen.

Do that division with me. Sixteen deputies. Take out the ones running the jail. Take out court. Take out the detectives working cases. Take out days off and vacation, and take out whoever is on light duty. What is actually rolling at three in the morning across a county the size of a small state is two, and on a bad night it is one.

Now, that cuts both directions. Out in the county, response time is long and you are the first responder whether you signed up for the job or not. In a city, response is fast right up until the calls stack, and then every unit is committed and the queue is hundreds deep. I have worked those nights. The radio does not sound panicked, it just stops sending anybody.

There is a structural difference on top of the staffing one. Your sheriff is elected by the people of that county and he answers to them at the next election. Your city chief is appointed by a mayor or a council and answers to them tomorrow morning. That difference decides a great deal when hard orders come down, and Episode 3 is the whole conversation on it.

So go meet your sheriff. County commission meetings are public and they are half empty. Find out how many deputies work nights. Ask him straight out what his plan is if the grid is down for two weeks. He will answer you, and now you are a name he knows instead of a stranger at a roadblock.

The suburbs

This is the section I get the fewest questions about, which tells me something, because most of you live here.

You are not in the city and you are not in the country. You carry some of the density problem without the density resources, and some of the distance without any of the land. You are on municipal water with no well. You have a quarter acre. Your food comes from the same store the city people will be driving to, and you sit close enough to a population center to be on somebody’s route out of it.

But you have one asset that beats anything the man on forty acres owns, and it is that you already live within two hundred feet of thirty families. Learn which neighbor has a well. Learn which one has a generator, which one is a nurse or a paramedic, which one runs a diesel truck and can fix it, which one owns a chainsaw and knows how to drop a tree without killing himself. That is one Saturday afternoon of conversations and it moves your position further than any purchase you are currently considering.

Score your ground on six factors

Be honest when you do this, because a scorecard you cheat on is worth nothing.

Distance and direction from the nearest city of 100,000 or more. Direction carries more weight than mileage, because when people leave a population center they leave on the highways and they go where the highway points. The question is whether you sit on that road or off it.

Water you can reach without electricity. A well with a hand pump backup, a creek, a spring, a lake inside walking distance. Cases of bottled water in the garage are a supply, and a supply runs out on a schedule you can calculate.

Food produced within a day’s drive. Farms, ranches, dairies, orchards. The question underneath it is whether you can name one of those people.

Routes in and out. One road in is a trap if the wrong people control it and a filter if the right people do, and which one it turns out to be depends entirely on the sixth factor.

Who answers when you call. What your response picture is at three in the morning, and whether you have met the man responsible for it.

People who would stand with you. The number of households near you who would work with you, share with you, and take a shift on a cold night. This one outweighs the other five combined, and I will not be argued off that.

I built a one-page Location Assessment Scorecard for this. You score all six, add the column, and there is a section for working your weakest one. It is free and the link is at the bottom.

The man who got the geography right

Now go to Genesis 13. Abram and Lot have too many animals for one piece of ground and their herdsmen are fighting, so Abram tells Lot to choose first and says he will take whatever is left.

And Lot lifted up his eyes and saw that the Jordan Valley was well watered everywhere like the garden of the LORD, like the land of Egypt, in the direction of Zoar. (This was before the LORD destroyed Sodom and Gomorrah.) So Lot chose for himself all the Jordan Valley, and Lot journeyed east. Thus they separated from each other. Abram settled in the land of Canaan, while Lot settled among the cities of the valley and moved his tent as far as Sodom. (Genesis 13:10-12, ESV)

Look at what Lot evaluated. He lifted up his eyes and he assessed the water and the grazing, and he assessed them correctly. That valley was the best ground on the table and the text says so plainly. He ran factors two and three and he got an A on both.

There is not one word in that passage about the people. He never asked who lived in those cities, how they treated strangers, or whether he could raise a family among them. He optimized for water and pasture and moved his tent toward Sodom.

One chapter later, war comes through that valley, four kings against five, and when it is over the raiders carry off the goods of Sodom and they carry off Lot with them, because Lot was living in Sodom. He did not lose everything on bad ground. He lost everything on excellent ground inside a community he never assessed. That is factor six, sitting in the text about four thousand years before anybody made a video about it.

If you are not moving

Most of you are not moving. You have a job, a mortgage, aging parents, a kid two years from graduating, and a wife who is not selling the house to chase a scenario on the internet. That is not failure and God is not surprised by any of it.

Build houses and live in them; plant gardens and eat their produce. Take wives and have sons and daughters; take wives for your sons, and give your daughters in marriage, that they may bear sons and daughters; multiply there, and do not decrease. But seek the welfare of the city where I have sent you into exile, and pray to the LORD on its behalf, for in its welfare you will find your welfare. (Jeremiah 29:5-7, ESV)

Understand who is reading that letter. Those are exiles in Babylon, living in a foreign city they did not choose, under a government that conquered them and hauled them there by force. Their position is worse than anything any of us is looking at.

God does not tell them to run for the hills. He does not tell them to buy land in the country and wait it out. He tells them to build houses, plant gardens, marry, have children, and work for the good of the city they are stuck in, and then He gives them a reason that is entirely practical. In its welfare you will find your welfare.

On a Tuesday afternoon, this is the work. You cannot move your county. You can move your relational density inside ninety days without going anywhere. Your church is the fastest relocation available to you. Ten families in one congregation who know each other’s skills, who have each other’s numbers written on paper, and who have sat down and had the hard conversation will outlast one family on forty acres that the county does not know.

If you are moving

Move early. Moving during is refugee movement, and it means arriving as a stranger with a trailer at the exact moment a stranger with a trailer gets the worst read.

Move to a community and not to a parcel. Forty acres with no neighbors sounds like independence right up until you break a leg in February. What you are buying is people. The land is only where you put them.

I will be honest about Idaho. The land was the easy part and the property closed in about a month. Becoming a man the neighbors count on took years, and none of it came from the acreage. It came from showing up to fix fence, help move cattle, and pull somebody’s truck out of a ditch at one in the morning in the middle of a January storm. You do not buy your way into a community. You earn your way in, and the clock starts the day you arrive, not the day you decided to come.

Find the church before you find the property. If there is no congregation you can be part of inside a reasonable drive, you have not found your ground yet, no matter how good the well is.

Write the trigger down

Whether you stay or go, one piece of work is left, and Jesus gave us the template for it.

But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then know that its desolation has come near. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, and let those who are inside the city depart, and let not those who are out in the country enter it. (Luke 21:20-21, ESV)

Read what He did there. He named a specific condition to watch for, armies around the city, and He named a specific action to take when it appeared, which was get out and do not go back in. He did not say leave now and He did not say ignore it. He gave a trigger and an action, and the believers who took it seriously got out.

That is the work you owe your family, and it is not a feeling. Things have been getting worse for a while now and you still went to work this morning, so a vague sense that the country is in trouble is not a decision tool. You need a written condition and a written action.

Sit down at the kitchen table this week with your wife, in the daylight, before anybody is scared. Write three conditions that would make you leave. Under each one, write where you go. Then the route. Then who you call. One page, in the binder. The alternative is making that call at two in the morning with the power off and the kids awake, and I watched people make decisions under those conditions for three decades. Nobody makes a good one.

The boundaries were already set

And he made from one man every nation of mankind to live on all the face of the earth, having determined allotted periods and the boundaries of their dwelling place. (Acts 17:26, ESV)

God set the boundaries. Where you are living right now is not an accident, and it is also not your salvation. Idaho does not save anybody. Neither does the acreage, the well, or a full pantry. Those are tools, and you use them the way Nehemiah used a wall and a posted guard, while you pray to the God who holds the outcome.

Score your ground this week. Find the weakest of the six and work that one before you buy anything else. Next episode we go inside the house, because Episode 5 is infrastructure and the first thirty days.

Tell me in the comments which factor came back weakest for you, and whether you are staying or going. I read them. The straight answers in that section are worth more to the men reading this than anything I write.

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The Ground Truth Workbook — included with your paid subscription

Nine printable pages that take the six factors from Episode 4 and turn them into work you can finish this month.

✅ Six questions for your county sheriff, written so you can take the page to a public commission meeting and ask them without putting the man on the spot

✅ A household skills inventory with room for seven neighbors. Who has the well, the generator, the medical training, the ham license, and who has been through a real disaster and knows what the second week feels like

✅ A water source table that separates what you have stored in the garage from what you can reach when the power is off

✅ A producer log for the farms and ranches inside a day of your house, with a column for whether you can name them

✅ A route worksheet that traces the distribution center feeding your grocery store and the chokepoints between it and your town

✅ A staying or moving commitment page you fill out with your wife, including a line for who holds you to it

✅ A review log so you can rescore every six months and see whether the number moved

The free scorecard tells you where your ground stands today. This is the part where you go fix the weakest row.

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Militaries do not come apart in an afternoon, and they never have, including this one.

You are a staff sergeant in a National Guard unit. It is two in the morning and you have been standing in a parking lot for three hours. An order comes down that does not sit right with you. There is no lawyer beside you. Your platoon leader is twenty-four years old and looks like he is about to be sick. The men on either side of you are watching to see what you do, and you have about eleven seconds to decide. Everything in this piece comes back to that sergeant. The question is not which side the armed forces will pick. It is what he does at two in the morning, multiplied by a few hundred thousand men.

How the Army actually split in 1861

In June of 1860 the United States Army had about 1,080 officers and roughly 14,900 enlisted men. When the Southern states began leaving, 286 of those officers resigned or were dismissed and went into Confederate service. Of the 824 West Point graduates on the active list, 184 went south. The Navy lost 373 officers out of about 1,554.

Now the number nobody quotes. Out of nearly 15,000 enlisted men, roughly 26 violated their oaths and went south. Twenty-six.

Why the enormous gap? Because officers held commissions they could resign and enlisted men had no legal way out. The enlisted force stayed intact for the entire war. The fracture ran through the officer corps and through families, and it never ran along a map. Winfield Scott and George Thomas were both Virginians and both stayed with the Union. John Pemberton was born in Philadelphia and took a Confederate commission. Robert E. Lee was offered field command of the Union army and turned it down, and you can go read his resignation letter at the National Archives today.

Geography did not decide it and neither did politics. Individual men decided it, one at a time, and nobody could have predicted the outcome from a map of where they were born.

Spain, 1936

The better model for a modern institutional split is Spain, and almost nobody covering this subject uses it.

Peninsular Spain was divided into eight military districts. Of the eight district commanders, exactly one was part of the conspiracy against the government, and three of the eight district chiefs of staff were involved. The plot was not run by generals. It was run by mid-level line officers expected to seize their own garrisons and either overpower their seniors or talk them into coming along. In Madrid and Barcelona the uprising collapsed inside two days because local security forces stayed put and the other side moved first. In Navarre and western Andalucia it succeeded for the same reason in reverse. The Army of Africa, sitting in Morocco, went over as one intact formation, and that single unit tipped the balance of the entire war.

Soldiers do not split as individuals. They split as units, and what decides a unit is the local commander, the men immediately around him, and who moves first in the first forty-eight hours.

Your neighbor in the Guard is not going to sit at his kitchen table and reason his way through the Constitution. He is going to be standing in that parking lot, and the formation is going where the man in front of it takes it. Nothing about that is an insult to him. A military is designed to work exactly that way, and if it were not, it would be useless to all of us.

The two oaths

Enlisted personnel swear to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, to bear true faith and allegiance to the same, and to obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over them, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

Commissioned officers swear to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, to bear true faith and allegiance to the same, to take the obligation freely without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion, and to well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office.

Read them twice. The officer’s oath contains no clause about obeying the President. None, and it never has. An officer’s sworn obligation runs to the document and not to the man holding the office.

Somebody is going to take that and run straight off a cliff with it, so I will handle it here. The difference does not mean an officer gets to pick and choose which orders he likes. Officers fall under the same Uniform Code as everyone else and they go to prison for refusing lawful orders like everyone else. What the missing clause tells you is that the men who wrote it were working on a specific problem, and they built the officer corps to carry a personal constitutional obligation from the day it was founded. It is a design feature and not a hall pass.

The standard for refusing an order

Every military order is presumed lawful and the burden falls on the man who refuses it. Under Rule 916 of the Manual for Courts-Martial, acting under orders is a defense unless the accused knew the order was unlawful, or unless a person of ordinary sense and understanding would have known it was unlawful. Refusing a lawful order is a crime under Articles 90 and 92. Following a manifestly unlawful one protects nobody, which is the whole lesson of the Calley court-martial after My Lai.

So the bar is manifestly unlawful. Obviously and clearly illegal to a reasonable person. Ordering troops to shoot unarmed civilians clears that bar, and almost nothing else does in the moment it is given.

I worked about thirty years under a version of that same standard, and I will tell you how it feels from the inside. It is a use of force decision. In the classroom it is clean and everybody in the room gets the right answer. On the street you have partial information, a supervisor waiting on the radio, and about a second and a half, and then a review board watches the video for six months with a fresh cup of coffee and full knowledge of how it turned out. Our sergeant in the parking lot is standing in that exact spot. Eugene Fidell, who teaches military justice at Yale Law School, put it plainly to UPI last year. A service member who refuses is rolling the dice.

So here is the honest answer to the question in the title. Some will refuse and they will pay for it. Most will not, and most of the men who do not will be doing exactly what the law requires of them. Institutional splits never happen cleanly. They happen slowly and unevenly, one career at a time.

The last two years

On June 7, 2025, a president invoked Title 10, Section 12406 to federalize a state’s National Guard over that governor’s objection for the first time in American history. Roughly 4,200 California Guard personnel deployed to Los Angeles along with about 700 active duty Marines. California sued, and in August of 2025 a federal judge found the deployment violated the Posse Comitatus Act. Similar attempts in Portland and the Chicago area drew injunctions. On December 23, 2025, the Supreme Court declined the administration’s emergency request to lift the block in Illinois, with Justice Kavanaugh concurring in the judgment and Justices Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch dissenting. By early January of 2026, about 500 federalized Guard personnel had been demobilized.

Most coverage stops there, and stopping there gets the picture wrong. In December of 2025 roughly 350 Louisiana Guard personnel deployed into New Orleans under Title 32 at their own governor’s request. Same soldiers, similar mission, no lawsuit, no injunction, no headlines. The Washington, D.C. deployment has continued the entire time and was extended this month to January 20, 2029, with more than 5,100 Guard personnel in the District as of July 8. The District is not a state and the federal government holds far more authority over its Guard than over any state’s. In January of 2026 the Insurrection Act was publicly threatened over unrest in Minneapolis and it was not invoked. It has not been invoked since the Los Angeles riots in 1992.

I am not going to tell you who was right in any of those cases. You are a grown adult and you can work that out. The takeaway I want you holding is structural, and it holds no matter which way you lean politically.

Every one of those confrontations was settled in a courtroom rather than in an intersection. No unit refused orders over it, and no governor and president ever put armed men on the same street corner. Governors sued, judges ruled, appeals were filed, and the parties complied. The system did precisely what it was built to do, and I consider it the single most reassuring fact in this episode.

It is also the first thing that would fail. The day a court order in a case like that gets ignored by anybody, you are somewhere new, and you will not need me to point it out. Watch for that one specific thing and stop worrying about the rest of the noise.

Law enforcement is built differently

This is my ground so I will be blunt about it. There is no national police force in this country. There are roughly 18,000 separate agencies answering to different masters. County sheriffs are elected by the county and can only be removed by the county or by a state process. Municipal chiefs serve at the pleasure of a mayor or a city manager. State police answer to a governor. Federal agents answer to Washington. The structure makes a clean national fracture nearly impossible and a messy local one very easy.

Watch what is already happening with immigration enforcement, and watch it in both directions, because it runs both ways. Ten states now bar local agencies from participating in the 287(g) program. Maryland passed such a law this year, Maryland sheriffs sued their own state over it, and the federal government filed suit against the state in July. Texas went the opposite direction and requires nearly every sheriff in the state to join. In Florida, 272 of 394 law enforcement agencies hold active 287(g) agreements, and only 163 of those have made a single arrest under one, which tells you a fair number of agencies signed the paperwork and then quietly did nothing with it.

Real fragmentation looks like that. It does not look like officers throwing badges on the ground in front of a camera. It looks like a patchwork of state statutes pulling opposite directions, sheriffs suing governors, governors suing presidents, and 18,000 agencies landing in different places one county at a time. It is slow, it is legal, and it is already underway. The consequence for your family is simple enough. In a serious event the response you get will be decided by county and city politics you have never paid any attention to and by mutual aid agreements you have never read.

What Scripture says about refusing an order

The verse people reach for here is Acts 5:29, and most of them are using it wrong.

“But Peter and the apostles answered, ‘We must obey God rather than men.’” Acts 5:29, ESV

That is the whole verse, and the quoting usually stops right there. Look at what happened around it. The apostles were ordered by the Sanhedrin to stop preaching Christ and they kept preaching. They were arrested, hauled in front of the council, Peter said that line, and then they were beaten and released. They did not resist arrest, they did not raise a force, and they did not go to war with the Sanhedrin. They refused one specific unlawful command and absorbed the specific penalty for refusing it.

The same shape shows up every time Scripture records a believer defying a governing authority. Shiphrah and Puah were given a direct order by Pharaoh to kill infants, which is about as manifestly unlawful an order as has ever been issued by anybody.

“But the midwives feared God and did not do as the king of Egypt commanded them, but let the male children live.” Exodus 1:17, ESV

They refused it, they lied to Pharaoh’s face about it, and God dealt well with them. And again, they did not overthrow anybody. Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednego did the same thing in front of a furnace that was already hot.

“But if not, be it known to you, O king, that we will not serve your gods or worship the golden image that you have set up.” Daniel 3:18, ESV

Catch those two words, “but if not.” They were not counting on rescue. They refused the command and walked toward the consequence.

Now set that against the passage the other half of the church reaches for, and they are not wrong to reach for it.

“Let every person be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and those that exist have been instituted by God.” Romans 13:1, ESV

Paul goes on to say that the authority is God’s servant for your good and does not bear the sword in vain. You do not get to skip that line. The default posture of a Christian toward lawful authority is submission, and any teaching that runs around it is not being honest with the text.

Put the two together and what you get is narrow and demanding instead of convenient. A believer submits to governing authority as a matter of course. When a specific command requires him to sin, he refuses that specific command and takes the specific consequence, without resisting it and without expanding it into a general license to fight the government. Every biblical example follows that shape, and not one of them looks like a man choosing which faction to join. If somebody in your circle is quoting Acts 5:29 as cover for something outside that shape, he is using the verse and not obeying it.

What your household does with this

Build a plan that works either way. Do not build around law enforcement being there and do not build around them not being there. You will not know in advance and the answer can change from one week to the next.

Learn your sheriff’s name this week. In most of this country he is the most consequential public safety official in your life and he stands for election. Sit through one county commission meeting. Find out whether your county holds mutual aid agreements and with whom. It is the least dramatic item on this list and the most useful.

Learn to read a deployment headline. When the Guard shows up somewhere, the only question worth asking is whether they are under Title 32 or Title 10. Title 32 means the governor still commands them and it is a state mission. Title 10 means they have been federalized. That one detail tells you more than an hour of commentary, and almost no headline will make it clear for you.

If you have family serving, have the conversation while it is quiet. Do not ask them what they would do, because that question only produces posturing. Ask them who they would call before they decided. The right answer involves a judge advocate. Frank Rosenblatt, president of the National Institute of Military Justice, runs a group called The Orders Project that provides free legal counsel to service members facing exactly that question, and calls to it went up sharply starting in late 2025. Knowing that number in peacetime is the entire point. A man who has thought this through in advance makes a better decision than a man doing it cold at two in the morning.

Point your Readiness Team’s intelligence role at your own county. National news is context. Your sheriff’s posture, your county’s mutual aid agreements, and the location of the Guard armories near you are what you will actually act on. The Readiness Team Assignment Worksheet in the library walks you through all ten assignments.

Where this leaves you

Most soldiers will follow most orders because that is what the law requires of them. Some will refuse and will pay for it. Units will go where their commanders take them, and law enforcement will keep fragmenting through statute and lawsuit rather than mutiny. None of it is under your control and Scripture never asked you to control it.

“The horse is made ready for the day of battle, but the victory belongs to the LORD.” Proverbs 21:31, ESV

Prepare the horse. Feed your household, learn your county, train your team, teach your children, and settle in advance what you will and will not do. Then leave the outcome where it has always belonged.

Now I want to hear from you in the comments. Do you know your sheriff’s name without looking it up, and do you know whether your county has mutual aid agreements in place? Answer both honestly, because that gap is the whole point of this episode. If you have family serving and you have already had the conversation about unlawful orders, tell me how it went, because other readers need to hear how that conversation actually starts.

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There are ten stages, and America is standing in six of them

There are ten stages to a civil war. Six of them are already in motion in this country. Three are not happening here at all. The tenth is how these things end.

That line, the one that falls between stage six and stage seven, is the entire reason to read this. Which side of it you are standing on decides what you do about it this week. Under every stage below I give you the one thing your family should have already done by that point.

A stage model is not a prediction. Nobody can predict this and anybody who tells you otherwise is selling you something. What it does is locate you.

Before we start, three honest caveats

This pattern comes from wars that already happened, so it describes tendencies and not a timetable. Stages overlap and they run at wildly different speeds. Lebanon slid for years. Bosnia went from a normal election to a siege in seventeen months.

Countries also walk backward down this ladder, and that is the part the doom channels leave out. A nation can enter the early stages, sit there a decade, and come out the other side without a war. Recognizing Stage 2 in America does not commit you to believing Stage 9 is coming.

Some of you are going to call this fearmongering. I understand the objection and I would rather answer it now than in the comments. Matthew 24:6-7 has Christ telling His disciples they will hear of wars and rumors of wars, and in the same breath telling them not to be alarmed by it. He gave them the information and then told them what it should not do to them. That is the assignment for this article. Proverbs 22:3 says the prudent sees danger and hides himself while the simple go on and suffer for it, and notice the verse assumes both men could see the same thing. The difference between them was not information. It was what they did with it.

Stage 1: Sorting

The first stage looks like moving vans, not militias.

Sorting is a population separating itself into camps. It happens geographically when families relocate to counties where they feel politically at home. It happens socially when the Thanksgiving table quietly reorganizes around agreement, and when a man realizes he no longer has a close friend who votes differently. In Bosnia you could read the sorting off the 1990 ballot seventeen months before the first shell landed.

Why does this stage matter so much when nothing violent is happening in it? Because it removes contact, and contact is the only thing that keeps the other side made of people. Once you do not personally know anyone on the far side of a line, that side becomes a category in your head, and a category is a much easier thing to write off than Dave who fixed your truck.

America finished this stage a while ago. County voting patterns have grown steadily more lopsided for thirty years, and interstate migration now tracks politics in a way it plainly did not in the 1990s.

What your family should have already done. Write out who you could actually reach on foot from your own front door. Not your contact list. Who is close enough to matter, who would come if you called, and who is going to need you to come get them. Your parents, your grown children, the widow two houses down. Sorting has already thinned that list for most men and they have not noticed, because it happened one moved friendship at a time over twenty years.

Stage 2: The information war

Shared reality goes next.

Two men watch the same fifteen seconds of video and come away with opposing accounts, both certain, both with sources, and neither one lying. Rumor outruns correction every time, and the correction gets read as proof of a cover-up when it finally shows up.

Synthetic media makes this stage worse than anything Bosnia had. Their propaganda came from state television and everybody knew who was producing it. Ours arrives on a phone from an account with no name, and by the time anyone establishes the footage was fabricated it has four million views and has already put people in the street.

America is in this stage right now. Trust has fallen in institutions across the board, including the ones on your side of the aisle, and that is not a partisan claim because the numbers are ugly in every direction.

What your family should have already done. Put a rule in your house that nothing gets forwarded and nothing gets acted on off the first version of it. That applies to you, your wife, and every teenager with a phone. A family that reacts to whatever hits the screen first is a family being steered by whoever manufactured it, and eventually that steering puts one of them somewhere they should not be. Proverbs 18:17 puts it plainly: the first man to state his case seems right until the other one comes and examines him. That habit gets built at your own table in the quiet, because it cannot be installed in the middle of an event.

Stage 3: The spark

Every one of these wars has a date people point back to.

Lebanon has April 13, 1975. That morning, gunmen in a car fired on a church in the Christian district of Ain el-Rummaneh in East Beirut and killed four people. Hours later, Phalangist militiamen stopped a bus carrying Palestinians through that same neighborhood and killed twenty-seven of them. Fifteen years of war followed.

Here is the part worth sitting with. Marwan Chahine, a Lebanese-French journalist who wrote an entire book on that day, went looking for the planned operation and could not find one. He concluded the shooters were trigger-happy young men rather than an organized cell, and that the day only reached that scale because it landed on top of many others at a point when the state was already too weak to hold anything together. The spark did not cause the war. It landed on a country that was already assembled and it finished the wiring.

That is why predicting the spark is a waste of your time and preparing for one is not. Nobody can tell you what it will be. What can be said is that it will be ambiguous, that both sides will have a complete and confident account of it inside of two hours, and that the two accounts will never be reconciled.

America has had several candidate events in the last ten years that did not catch. I think that is the single most encouraging fact in this entire article and it deserves to be said out loud. The assembly is not finished.

What your family should have already done. Write down what your family does in the first twenty-four hours after a national shock. Who calls whom and in what order. Does everyone come home or does everyone stay put. Where you meet if home is not an option. What the kids do if it happens during school hours and the phones are down. One page, on the refrigerator, read out loud once by every person living in that house. A family inventing that plan in the middle of the event spends the first day driving around looking for each other.

Stage 4: Street-level violence

Stage 4 is disorganized violence between civilians. Riots, arson, assaults, property destruction, carried out by loose groups with no command structure and no objective past this afternoon. It concentrates in cities, burns out, and reignites somewhere else a month later.

Casualties here stay low compared to what comes later, and that is exactly why people underestimate it. The damage is not the body count. The damage is what every incident does to the people watching it on their phones. Each one recruits. Men who wanted no part of any of this start deciding they need protection, and then they start looking around for who is going to provide it. That search is the fuel for everything after Stage 6.

America has been through real episodes of this without moving past it, which tells us sustained street violence does not escalate automatically.

What your family should have already done. This is the stage where where you go and when you go there starts to matter, and your wife and children need to understand that without being frightened by it. Everyone in the house should know what they do if something starts near them, drilled once so it is not the first time they have considered the question. I will be blunt about the other half of this. Most men who read about Stage 4 respond by buying something. Buy nothing this month. Sit down with your family instead, because that conversation is free and it is worth more than the gear. Read Nehemiah 4:9 and see what the man did. He prayed to God and set a guard, both halves in one sentence, no apology for either one, and he was protecting his own household and his neighbors at the same time.

Stage 5: Federal and state confrontation

This is the stage that turns unrest into a constitutional crisis, and it is the hinge of the whole model.

The argument stops being between citizens here. A governor refuses a federal directive. A state declines to enforce a federal law or moves to block a federal agency working inside its borders. A federal court order gets met with open non-compliance by a state official, or the other way around.

Why is this the hinge? Because it forces men in uniform to choose. Up to this point a deputy or a soldier does his job and never has to answer the question. At Stage 5 the question shows up on a Tuesday morning as a specific order from a specific supervisor with a specific name on it.

America has real activity here, in both directions, under administrations of both parties. Sanctuary policies, refusals to enforce federal firearms provisions, fights over National Guard authority, litigation that ends with an official loudly announcing he will not comply. Almost all of it stays inside the court system, and the courts absorbing that pressure is the reason this stage has not advanced.

What your family should have already done. Settle your theology of authority before somebody makes you use it, and settle it out loud with your wife and your older children so they are not hearing your position for the first time on the worst day of their lives. Romans 13 and Acts 5:29 are both in the Bible and a man who has only ever thought hard about one of them is going to be caught flat-footed. Romans 13 says governing authority is instituted by God and that submission is the ordinary Christian posture. Acts 5:29 has the apostles refusing a lawful order from a legitimate authority and taking the consequences for it. Neither one cancels the other. Give that a few months of Sunday afternoons, because it cannot start when somebody is standing on your porch asking you a question.

Stage 6: Law enforcement and military fracture

I spent close to thirty years in law enforcement and I want to be precise here, because the version of this stage you see in movies is wrong.

It does not start with agencies picking sides. There is no morning when half the department drives off. It starts with attrition and selective enforcement. Officers retire the day they hit eligibility. Recruiting fails. Agencies drop below the staffing level required to answer calls, so they quietly stop answering whole categories of call. What a department will enforce becomes uneven, and the unevenness tracks local politics.

For your family the effect arrives long before anything resembling a fracture, and it is simple. Nobody comes for a while. That can be true in a county that is completely peaceful, and in parts of this country it is already true. I do not have a national number for response times I would put my name behind, so I am not going to invent one. Get your own.

Episode 3 takes this apart in full, including the sheriff’s oath and what happens to National Guard units.

What your family should have already done. Call your non-emergency line this week and ask the average response time to your address on an ordinary Tuesday. Plan against a multiple of that number, because that is what you will actually be working with. Whatever the number turns out to be, that window belongs to you. Your family is the first responder for the length of it and every person in the house should know their job during it. Then look past your own four walls at your mother, your in-laws, and the widow down the street, and decide now that checking on them is your job, and tell them so.

Stage 7: Armed group activation

Stage 7 is where the loose violence of Stage 4 grows a command structure.

Groups form with names, money, leadership, and ground they consider theirs. Then they start doing something almost nobody expects, which is providing services the government has stopped providing. Militias in Lebanon collected the garbage. Paramilitaries in Northern Ireland ran neighborhood policing and handed out beatings as punishment. That service provision is what converts a gang into an authority in the eyes of the people who live there, and it is why this stage almost never reverses once it sets.

Foreign money usually shows up here too. An adversary state does not need to land troops. Cash, weapons, and amplification pointed at three sides at once is cheaper and works better, and it has been the standard playbook since the Cold War.

America is not in this stage. There are groups in this country that would very much like to be, and the distance between wanting it and having it is enormous. Being accurate about that distance matters more to me than sounding urgent.

What your family should have already done. Understand that your safety at this stage runs through your own household and the people around it, not through a faction. This is where a lot of preparedness content goes badly wrong and I have no use for it. The answer to organized armed groups is not to go find one to join. It is a Readiness Team, and mine is made of family, friends, and neighbors, which is exactly what yours should be. Luke 14:28-31 has Christ telling two stories back to back, a man building a tower and a king considering war, and both of them are about counting the cost honestly before you commit to something you cannot finish.

Stage 8: Infrastructure failure

Power, water, fuel, banking, and communications stop working in the eighth stage, and they stop in that order for reasons most people never think about.

These systems hang on each other like a rope bridge with no redundant planks. Water treatment needs power. Fuel distribution needs payment processing. Payment processing needs communications. Pull one plank and the next three fail on a clock measured in hours, not days.

None of that requires an attack. Deferred maintenance, workforce that stops showing up, and just-in-time supply chains will do it on their own. Deliberate targeting only speeds up something neglect already started.

Plan around the household consequence, which is identical regardless of the cause. Your tap water stops being safe somewhere in the first week. Your food is whatever is in the house. Your money is whatever is in your hand. Episode 5 walks the first thirty days of this in detail.

What your family should have already done. Write down every person in your house who depends on refrigerated medication, powered medical equipment, or a well pump that needs electricity to run, then do the same for your parents and anyone else you will end up responsible for. It is a short list for most families and it is the difference between an inconvenience and a funeral. Put it on paper and make sure two people know where the paper is.

Stage 9: Territorial control

The ninth stage is what turns a breakdown into a war.

Ground changes hands. Areas take on a faction’s identity, and getting between them means passing a checkpoint run by men who do not work for any government. Movement stops being a choice. The sorting that happened voluntarily back in Stage 1 gets completed here at gunpoint, and every conflict that reaches this stage produces its worst atrocities in it, almost always against civilians, almost always committed by men from the same town.

America is nowhere near this. Saying that is not optimism, it is accuracy, and a model that cannot rule anything out is worthless for locating anything.

What your family should have already done. Nothing gets built at Stage 9. Everything that helps your family here was built during the first eight, which is the entire argument for doing the work now, while it still costs you nothing but a few Saturday mornings.

Stage 10: Settlement or exhaustion

These wars end. That is worth knowing, and the ending is usually ugly and slow rather than clean.

One side wins outright, which is rare. An outside power imposes a settlement, which is what happened in Bosnia at Dayton. Or both sides exhaust themselves and negotiate, which is what happened in Northern Ireland after thirty years, 3,532 dead, and something close to fifty thousand wounded in a country smaller than Connecticut.

This is the stage almost no preparedness content goes near, because there is nothing exciting in it. Burying the dead, feeding the displaced, and rebuilding trust between people who did terrible things to each other are functions the church has performed after wars for two thousand years, and it performs them through families that held together. So understand what you are actually building. The man who comes out the far end of something like this with his marriage intact and children who still trust him is the man his whole street ends up leaning on. That is not decided at Stage 10. It is decided by how he led his house through the first nine.

Where America actually sits

Run the list honestly. Stage 1 is complete. Stage 2 is active. Stage 3 has produced several candidate events that failed to catch. Stage 4 shows up in episodes that have not sustained. Stage 5 is real and is being absorbed by the courts, which is exactly what is supposed to happen. Stage 6 is measurable in staffing numbers across most of the country. Stages 7 through 9 are not happening here.

That puts us in the early middle with the brakes still working. Not comfortable, and a long way from a war.

So do the unglamorous things this week. Write your people list. Call the sheriff’s office and get your real response time. Put the twenty-four-hour plan on one page and hang it on the refrigerator. Sit down with your wife and settle Romans 13 and Acts 5:29 before somebody forces the question on you. Then work through the Ten Stages Tracker at the kitchen table and mark what you can actually see from where you live.

Proverbs 6:6-8 sends a lazy man to go watch an ant, and the whole lesson is in the timing. She gathers in the summer, while the weather is good and nobody would fault her for resting, because summer is the only time gathering is possible.

Watch, stand fast in the faith, be brave, be strong. ABCs. Always be carrying.

Next episode. Will soldiers and deputies follow unconstitutional orders? Episode 3 covers the military and law enforcement split, and I pull directly from my own career for it.

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I am sure that when I say the next American Civil War, you are absolutely picturing it wrong. When most people hear the words Second Civil War, they see Gettysburg. They see two uniformed armies, a battlefield, a front line, a map with blue territory and gray territory. And that picture is the single biggest obstacle to you thinking clearly about this particular subject, because it lets people dismiss the whole question. Nobody believes that Virginia is going to muster a rebel army, so nobody prepares for anything like that.

Modern civil conflict doesn’t look like Gettysburg. It looks like Yugoslavia in 1992, or it looks like Northern Ireland for 30 years. It looks like Lebanon, where a functioning, prosperous country came apart neighborhood by neighborhood while most residents kept going to work every day. There is no front line. There is your street, your county, and everybody else’s. The war is going to arrive as a series of local breakdowns long before anybody calls it an actual war.

History is a predictor of the future

I am not predicting a date. I’m reading a pattern. The United States has already had one civil war. That’s not a talking point, it’s a data point. Internal conflict is not something that happens to other countries. It happened here. It killed more Americans than every foreign war ever combined, and the generation that lived through it, they didn’t see it coming with any more clarity than we would now. In 1855, the idea of Americans slaughtering Americans at industrial scale was as unthinkable a thing as it feels today.

Nations aren’t exempt from history because they’re old or rich or well-armed. History says the opposite. Internal conflict follows observable conditions: deep factional identity, loss of trust in shared institutions, contested legitimacy of elections and courts, and a population that increasingly believes that the other side is not a rival but a threat. You can argue about how far along we are. You can’t argue that the conditions are absent.

A Rasmussen Reports poll in April of 2024 found that 41% of likely voters believe a second civil war is likely within five years. A YouGov poll in June of ‘25 found 40% saying one is likely within a decade, more than said that it was unlikely. Two in five Americans are already thinking about this. The question is whether they are thinking about it well.

What the Bible actually says

The Bible doesn’t predict an American Civil War. Anyone who tells you that it does is selling you something. What Scripture does say directly is stronger than a hidden prophecy anyway, because it is a standing instruction rather than a date.

Jesus told His disciples what the age between His resurrection and His return would look like. He said, “And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom” (Matthew 24:6-7, ESV). Two commands sit inside that passage. First, expect conflict. It is the normal condition of a fallen world, not a surprise. Second, do not be alarmed. Panic is disobedience. The Christian response to a violent age is sober expectation, not fear and not denial.

Then there’s Luke 22:36. On the night that He was betrayed, Jesus told the disciples that the season had changed. When He sent them out earlier, they carried nothing and lacked nothing. And now He tells them, “Let the one who has a moneybag take it, and likewise a knapsack. And let the one who has no sword sell his cloak and buy one.” Whatever else the verse teaches, it establishes that Jesus expected His people to read the conditions around them and adjust their preparations accordingly. Provision and protection are not failures of faith. They are obedience to the Lord who told His men to gear up because the environment had turned hostile.

And Proverbs 22:3 puts the principle in one line: “The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” The prudent man does not need certainty. He needs a credible danger and the humility to act on it. Nobody knows the date of a house fire either, and we still own fire extinguishers.

So the honest position is this: Scripture does not name this conflict. Scripture tells us conflict comes, it tells us not to panic, and it tells us the wise man prepares. History tells us this nation is not exempt. That’s the whole argument, and it doesn’t require a prophecy or a panic attack.

It won’t start with a shot

This next civil war is not going to start with a shot. It’s going to start with a video. The realistic trigger scenarios all run through information, not artillery. A contested election where half the country rejects the result. A federal and state confrontation where a governor refuses a federal directive, or federal agents enforce one over a state’s objection, and both sides believe that they are the lawful authority. A disinformation event, real or manufactured, that puts crowds in the streets in 20 cities on the same night.

In every scenario, the first casualty is the shared belief that the system will sort itself out. Once enough people conclude that the referee is crooked, they stop playing by the rules, and everything after that is escalation management. Out of all the things I just listed, does any of that sound familiar? Anything that might be happening right now?

For the church, there is a specific version of this danger. The forces that fracture the body politic will work just as hard to fracture the body of Christ. Believers will be pressured to sort themselves by faction first and faith second. That’s already happening. A congregation that has not thought about this in advance is going to discover its dividing lines in the worst possible moment.

The first 72 hours

Let’s talk about the first 72 hours of an event. The opening phase of a modern internal conflict is not combat. It is a cascade of local failures.

Expect communications degradation first, whether from overload, or from deliberate throttling, or from platforms suppressing information in the name of stability. That part sound familiar, YouTube? Expect runs on fuel, cash, and groceries within the first day in any affected region, because supply chains are built for efficiency. They’re not built for panic demand. Expect police and emergency services to be overwhelmed and to triage calls, which means whole categories of calls simply don’t get a response. Expect travel to become unpredictable, with checkpoints, closures, and detours appearing without notice.

None of that requires a single organized combatant. It only requires enough people to stop trusting tomorrow. If you have followed this channel for any length of time, you already recognize the list, because it’s the same set of failures that we prepare for in any grid-down or civil disturbance scenario. The entry point is different. The homework is the same.

Why the church has to think about this now

Nehemiah rebuilt the wall of Jerusalem under credible threat of attack. His enemies mocked him and then conspired to come and fight. His response was not to pick between prayer and preparation. In fact, he says, “And we prayed to our God and set a guard as a protection against them day and night” (Nehemiah 4:9, ESV). Half the men worked while half stayed armed. Every builder kept his sword at his side. And when the people grew afraid, Nehemiah told them, “Do not be afraid of them. Remember the Lord, who is great and awesome, and fight for your brothers, your sons, your daughters, your wives, and your homes” (Nehemiah 4:14, ESV).

Prayer and a posted guard, in the same verse, from the same man, with no tension between them. That is our template. The church is not called to raise a faction. The church is called to be ready to protect and provide for its people regardless of which direction the breakdown comes from. Your congregation is either the most capable community structure in your area, or it is a soft target full of people who assume that somebody else was thinking about this. There is no third option, and the deciding factor is whether anyone starts the work before it’s needed.

That is what this series is for. Over the next six episodes, we’re going to walk the stages of how an American internal conflict would actually unfold: who the players are going to be, what happens to the military and law enforcement, why geography decides so much, what hits your household in the first 30 days, and how a congregation organizes to stand through it. No panic, no date setting, no faction picking. Just the pattern, the Word, and the work. The prudent man sees the danger while there is still time to act on it, and right now, there is still time.

Now, why don’t you come pray with me.

Heavenly Father, Lord, thank You for this platform where we can all communicate with each other and plan and see danger before it comes. Lord, we thank You so much for preparing us and for helping us through any future conflict. Lord, we pray that it doesn’t happen. But the Bible is clear, and we just pray that You help us prepare our families and our churches and our neighbors so that we can stay safe through the coming years of conflict that may be approaching. Lord, we love You and we thank You. In Jesus’ name we pray, amen.

I hope to see you through this series. I hope that you get a chance to see how things might unfold, how you might prepare, and how you can not lose faith in the Lord and continue to worship and prepare not just your family, but your churches.

And when you leave here, remember your ABCs. Always be carrying.

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BLUF

Iran has moved to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb at the same time, which has never been done, because each waterway has always been the escape route for cargo that could not use the other. Brent crude closed near 98 dollars today on its fifth straight daily gain and diesel is already above 5 dollars a gallon. Your fuel cost is moving now. Your grocery cost moves later, and the reason is fertilizer.

Key Judgments

• Highly Likely: Fuel and freight costs continue climbing while both waterways remain contested.

• Highly Likely: American households experience this as sustained price pressure rather than empty pumps, because the United States produces most of what it burns.

• Likely: Food prices lag fuel prices by 6 to 18 months as fertilizer disruption works through a growing season.

• Possible: A confirmed simultaneous closure pushes Brent into the 150 to 200 dollar range analysts have modeled.

• Unlikely: Americans face fuel rationing or bare grocery shelves from this in the near term.

Situation Summary

Hormuz has been functionally contested since late February. What changed this month is the second waterway. Iran has instructed the Houthis to prepare to sever the Red Sea route, and on July 20 the Houthis declared a total ban on Saudi maritime navigation there. They have since struck two Saudi tankers, and a vessel caught fire roughly 70 nautical miles southwest of Al Shuqaiq.

Understand why analysts call this unprecedented. The Bab el-Mandeb has been the release valve for Saudi crude that could not transit Hormuz. Closing one waterway is survivable because the other absorbs the traffic. Closing both removes the workaround. Goldman Sachs estimates roughly 4 million barrels per day moving through the Bab el-Mandeb would be difficult to reroute. Indago assesses a simultaneous closure could abruptly remove up to 20 percent of global petroleum liquids and drive Brent toward 150 to 200 dollars. The market is already pricing the threat alone, with tankers diverting through Suez at added cost.

Now the part getting less coverage. Roughly 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer moves through Hormuz, and the Near East supplies about a third of the world’s urea exports. Urea doubled to over 850 dollars per metric ton in April before settling near 453 in June. The Food and Agriculture Organization states plainly that no strategic fertilizer stockpiles exist anywhere in the world. Fertilizer shortfalls do not reach the grocery store this month. They arrive after a planting season produces a smaller harvest.

Threat Vectors

• Fuel cost. Diesel above 5.134 dollars a gallon and climbing, which prices every truck and tractor in the country.

• Freight cost. Suez rerouting adds weeks and insurance to voyages, and that lands in the price of anything shipped.

• Fertilizer supply. Nitrogen inputs constrained at the source with no global reserve to draw on.

• Harvest yield. Farmers facing high diesel and input costs plant less or fertilize less, and the shortfall arrives a season later.

• Heating and utility cost. Natural gas moves with the same disruption and reaches your winter bill.

Supply and Readiness Gaps

Most preparedness planning is built for a sudden event. This one is slow, and the gap it exposes is different. A family with 30 days of food is well positioned for a storm and poorly positioned for 18 months of compounding cost, because storage protects against scarcity and does nothing about price.

Very few households store fuel, and the ones starting now will buy during a spike, which is the worst time to purchase and the most likely time to store it carelessly. Almost nobody tracks the numbers that would have warned them, so households react to what they feel at the pump, well after the cost has arrived.

Action Steps

• Track 4 numbers monthly. Brent crude, the EIA on-highway diesel average published free every Monday, urea per metric ton, and your own local gas and grocery baseline written down.

• Buy staples ahead of the curve, starting with what inflates most. Rice, pasta, flour, oats, and cooking oil carry the heaviest fuel and fertilizer content in their price.

• Move your food storage target from 30 days toward 90, bought across the next 3 months rather than in one purchase.

• Store fuel correctly or do not store it. Approved containers only, stabilizer at the labeled ratio, rotation every 6 months, kept outside the living structure with ventilation and away from any ignition source.

• Service what burns fuel now. Generator, vehicles, and small engines, while parts and labor are cheaper than they will be.

• Decide now what you cut if fuel and groceries rise another 20 percent, so the decision is made calmly instead of in November.

Threat Assessment

The threat to American household finances is elevated and rising, and it is highly likely to persist as long as the conflict continues. The primary concern is duration rather than severity. A family absorbs one hard month. A family struggles with 18 of them, and the current trajectory points toward the second.

It is likely the food price effect arrives well after most people have stopped connecting it to a war in the Gulf, which is why it catches households unprepared. It remains unlikely that Americans see rationing or empty shelves, and you should discount anyone selling that picture. The households that handle this well will be the ones that started buying ahead while the shelves were still full.

Biblical Lens

“Precious treasure and oil are in a wise man’s dwelling, but a foolish man devours it.” (Proverbs 21:20, ESV)

Solomon named oil specifically, because in every age it has been the stored good that carries a household through a shortage. Joseph did the same on a national scale, filling storehouses during years of plenty for a famine nobody could yet see. Neither was predicting disaster. They bought early because the wise buy before the price tells them to.

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BLUF

Seven federal agencies confirmed on July 22 that Iranian-affiliated hackers are operating inside the controllers that run American water treatment, energy, and municipal facilities, and that at one victim site they disabled the shutdown and alarm logic while falsifying what operators saw on their screens. You cannot patch your city’s water plant. Store water, understand what your filter cannot do, and stop reading an unexplained boil-water notice as routine.

Key Judgments

• Highly Likely: These operations continue and expand for as long as the conflict with Iran remains active.

• Highly Likely: Additional American utilities are already compromised and have not detected it.

• Possible: A compromise produces a public health event rather than an outage, because the manipulated systems were built to keep running while reporting normal readings.

• Unlikely: This campaign causes simultaneous nationwide failure of water or power in the near term.

Situation Summary

On July 22 the FBI, CISA, NSA, EPA, Department of Energy, U.S. Cyber Command, and Treasury updated a joint advisory numbered AA26-097A. It covers Iranian-affiliated intrusions into programmable logic controllers, the small industrial computers that open valves, run pumps, meter chemical dosing, and manage pressure at treatment plants. The named sectors are water and wastewater, energy, and local municipal facilities.

The method is unglamorous. Attackers found controllers reachable from the public internet, connected using the manufacturers’ own engineering software, and replaced the programs running on them. At one confirmed victim the malicious program kept the normal operating logic intact so the plant would appear to run correctly, while adding logic that overrode the instructions holding the system inside safe limits. The agencies state the changes disabled shutdown and alarm functions, and that the attackers also falsified the data shown on operator screens.

In plain language: the plant keeps running, the control room says everything is normal, the safety cutoffs are off, and the alarm that would summon a technician never sounds. This is not new ground. An IRGC-affiliated group compromised at least 75 controllers at American facilities beginning in 2023, including a Pennsylvania water authority. Research published in April found nearly 4,000 exposed industrial devices in the United States.

Threat Vectors

• Controllers reachable from the open internet, equipment built for a closed plant network sitting on a public address for maintenance convenience.

• The vendors’ own software used as the entry tool, which makes the traffic look ordinary.

• Falsified operator displays and disabled alarms, removing the two things that would tell anyone a problem exists.

Supply and Readiness Gaps

You have no way to verify whether your utility’s controllers were exposed. For most families the municipal water connection is the largest unaddressed point of failure in the home, precisely because it has always simply worked.

The second gap is depth. The planning figure is 1 gallon per person per day, and it climbs in summer heat. A family of 4 planning 14 days needs 56 gallons. Very few homes have that.

The third gap is the reason this advisory should change your plan. Nearly every filtration setup in the preparedness world is rated for biological threats. Gravity filters, hollow fiber filters, and treatment tablets handle bacteria and protozoa, which is correct for a flood and wrong for this. An attack that manipulates chemical dosing produces a chemical problem, and a caustic or chlorine overdose passes straight through a hollow fiber filter. Carbon improves taste and will not correct a pH excursion. Against a chemical event, stored water is the answer and filtration is not. A private well removes the municipal risk and replaces it with full dependence on the grid to run your pump.

Action Steps

• Build to 14 days of stored water at 1 gallon per person per day, pets included, kept out of sunlight and off concrete, rotated twice a year at the time change.

• Own both a filter and a chemical treatment option, and know the limits of each. Neither corrects a chemical dosing event, which is why the depth of your storage carries more weight than the quality of your filter.

• Determine your source this week, municipal or well, and which treatment plant serves your address. If you are on a well, solve the pump with a generator sized to it, a manual backup, or both.

• Enroll in your utility’s alerts and county emergency notifications. Most people assume they already are.

• Know your trigger. An unexplained boil-water notice, water that tastes or smells wrong or stings in the shower, or neighbors on your system reporting the same thing. Any one alone is usually nothing. Two together means switch to stored water.

• When a notice is unexplained, do not drink it and do not bathe in it. Boiling handles biological contamination and concentrates chemical contamination. Fill containers early, because pressure often survives the beginning of an event and not the middle.

Threat Assessment

The threat to household water continuity is elevated and rising. It is highly likely that Iranian-affiliated actors retain undetected access to American utility systems, and that operations intensify while the conflict continues. Federal agencies have documented capability, intent, and confirmed victims in one product, which removes the question of whether this is theoretical. The primary concern is a localized event at a small municipal system, which will likely reach the public as a service disruption before anyone calls it an attack.

The secondary concern is the shape of the failure. Because the technique keeps a plant running while suppressing alarms, the realistic worst case is unsafe water distributed for hours before anyone recognizes it, which defeats the assumption underneath most household water planning. It is unlikely this produces nationwide failure, and you should discount anyone selling that picture. Finish the storage you have been meaning to finish, understand what your filter cannot do, and read an unexplained municipal notice as intelligence.

Biblical Lens

“They have healed the wound of my people lightly, saying, ‘Peace, peace,’ when there is no peace.” (Jeremiah 6:14, ESV)

“But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet, so that the people are not warned, and the sword comes and takes any one of them, that person is taken away in his iniquity, but his blood I will require at the watchman’s hand.” (Ezekiel 33:6, ESV)

Jeremiah described instruments reading normal over a wound that was not healed, which is what a falsified control room display is. Ezekiel described the cost of a trumpet that never sounds, which is what a disabled alarm is. When the systems built to warn a city are switched off, the warning does not disappear. It moves to the household that was paying attention.

Leave a comment and tell me what your household water plan looks like right now. Share this with your family and your preparedness group, and put it in the hands of anyone you know who works in water or power operations. Everything here stays free, and paid subscribers are what make that possible.

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The most dangerous man in the preparedness world is the one standing in his garage looking at two years of food, four rifles, and nobody to hand one to. He has confused inventory with capability. In an extended emergency he will be awake for the first seventy two hours running his own security, his own medical, his own water treatment, and his own decision making, and somewhere around hour ninety he will make the mistake that ends it. Not because he was untrained. Because no one person can hold a perimeter, treat a wound, and sleep at the same time.

This is the part of preparedness almost nobody teaches, because gear sells and community does not. So let us fix it. What follows is the structure I want you building before the end of this year: ten people, two Elements, ten assigned specialties, and every one of them cross-trained. I call it a Readiness Team.

Why Ten, and Why Two Elements

Ten is not an arbitrary number. It is the smallest group that can sustain a twenty four hour operation and still lose a member without collapsing. Five people can cover the specialties, but five people cannot run a rotation. Somebody has to sleep. Somebody will get sick. Somebody will be at work when it starts.

Ten also splits cleanly, and that is the real reason for it. A Readiness Team of ten is organized into two Elements of five. Each Element has a leader. Above them sits one team leader. That is the structure the American military has used for a very long time, for a very simple reason. It lets the group divide when the situation requires it and still have both halves functional.

Think about what dividing actually means in practice. One Element stays with the property while the other moves to bring in a family member stranded across town. One Element takes the night watch while the other sleeps. One Element handles a medical evacuation while the other maintains the water and the security posture at home. A flat group of ten with no internal structure cannot do any of that. They will argue about it in the driveway while the clock runs.

The Ten Assignments

Every person on the Readiness Team owns one specialty. Owning it means you train for it, you buy for it, you maintain it, and when the group needs that thing, everyone looks at you. You are not buying for yourself. You are buying for ten.

• Team Leader. Holds the plan, makes the call when the group is split on a decision, and is responsible for the readiness of both Elements. Not the loudest person. The one who thinks clearly when other people are not.

• Medical. Trauma care first, then chronic and routine. Owns the group trauma kits, the medication inventory, and the thirty day prescription reserve for every member. Knows who is diabetic, who carries an EpiPen, and who is on a blood thinner.

• Weapons and Security. Owns the defensive plan, the perimeter, the watch rotation, and the training standard. Maintains the group’s arms and ammunition accounting.

• Communications. Owns the written communication plan, rally points, radio inventory, and licensing. Runs the layered system: cell phone first, VHF second, HF third. Sets the check in schedule and enforces it.

• Logistics and Supply. Owns the inventory. Knows what the group has, where it is, and when it expires. Runs rotation and resupply. This is the position that keeps a three thousand dollar food investment from spoiling untouched in a basement.

• Food Production. Owns growing, preserving, canning, hunting, and stretching. The difference between thirty days of stored food and an indefinite food supply is this person.

• Sanitation and Water. Owns treatment, waste handling, and hygiene. Nobody wants this job. Historically, disease has killed more people in a crisis than violence has, and it does it quietly, through a group that got sloppy with its hands and its latrine.

• Power and Mechanical. Owns generators, batteries, solar, fuel storage, vehicles, and repair. Every other specialty on this list depends on power or a working truck, and almost no group assigns anyone to it.

• Chaplain. Owns the spiritual life of the group. Leads worship, opens the Word, provides counsel, and carries the group through grief and fear. This is a manned position, not an afterthought. In an extended crisis the first thing to break is not the generator. It is the people.

• Training and Intelligence. Owns the drill schedule and the cross training plan. Makes sure the medical person can work a radio and the sanitation person can put on a tourniquet. Runs the group’s dry runs and makes them uncomfortable enough to be worth something. When conditions change, this is also the person reading the local situation and telling the team what is developing before it arrives. The two halves of the job rarely collide, because drills happen in the quiet and monitoring happens when the quiet ends.

Now split those ten across two Elements. Balance them so that each Element has someone who can shoot, someone who can treat a casualty, someone who can talk on a radio, and someone who can pray. The Element leaders come from within those five, not from outside. When you build the split, look at what each Element could not do if it operated alone for seventy two hours, and cross train against that gap first.

Cross Training Is the Whole Point

Assignments are how the work gets divided. Cross training is what keeps the group alive when the assignment holder is the casualty.

Every specialty has a primary and an alternate, and the alternate sits in the other Element. Your medical person is in First Element, so your alternate medical is in Second Element. If the two halves are separated when something goes wrong, both halves can still stop a bleed. Apply that rule down the entire list and you will have a group that degrades instead of collapsing.

Here is the standard I want you to hold. Every member should be able to perform the basic function of every other specialty at a survivable level. Not an expert level. A survivable one. Everyone can apply a tourniquet. Everyone can key a radio and give a location. Everyone can shut off a water main and treat a container of water. Everyone can run the generator. The specialist takes it from there.

That is the training coordinator’s whole job, and it is why that position exists. Left alone, every preparedness group in America trains on the one thing its members already enjoy, which is shooting, and neglects the nine things that will actually determine whether they make it.

Who Is On It, and How They Get There

Your Readiness Team comes from your family, your neighbors, your friends, and your church. That is the order most groups form in and it is a reasonable one.

They do not all have to be believers. I want to say that plainly because it will come up. If the Lord puts a man across the fence from you who can weld, who is steady under pressure, and who does not yet know Christ, you do not exclude him. You bring him in and you live in front of him. A Readiness Team is one of the most honest evangelism opportunities you will ever have, because the people in it will see you at your worst and under real pressure, and if your faith holds up there, they will ask you about it. The chaplain position is not there to make everyone Christian by rule. It is there to make sure Christ is present in the room.

Recruiting happens by word of mouth and nothing else. There is no application. There is no post on the community page. You talk to a man you already know, over time, and you watch how he handles small things before you ever raise the subject of large ones. Does he show up when he says he will? Does he keep his mouth shut about other people’s business? Can he take correction without getting his feelings hurt?

You have to trust these people explicitly, because the moment you invite someone in you have told them what you have and where it is. That knowledge cannot be recalled. So the standard is not whether you like a person. The standard is whether you would hand him your rifle and turn your back.

Information gets released in stages. Before a person commits, they know the concept and the people. They do not know your inventory, your caches, your rally points, or your full plan. After they commit and have trained with the group, they know what they need to know to do their job. Nobody outside the Readiness Team knows anything. That is not paranoia. Your neighbors are wonderful people right up until their children have not eaten for two days, and then they are going to remember every word you said about your basement.

My own team is a mix of family, friends, and neighbors. It did not get assembled at a meeting. It accumulated, one relationship at a time, over years of ordinary life, and most of the people on it were on it long before anyone used the word team out loud. That is worth understanding if you are starting from nothing today. You are not recruiting strangers into a plan. You are recognizing the people already standing around you and giving the arrangement a shape it did not have before.

The Leadership Problem Nobody Wants to Touch

Most Christian preparedness groups avoid the leadership question because it feels unspiritual to say out loud that somebody has to be in charge. Then a crisis arrives and ten people with equal standing spend the first four hours voting.

Somebody leads. The group decides who before anything happens, and once the group decides, that is the man. The Element leaders report to him. He does not become a tyrant and the structure is not a license for ego. He carries the responsibility for the group’s readiness and he makes the call when the group is split and the clock is running.

Choose him on judgment, not on rank, wealth, or who owns the property. The best team leader I ever worked under was not the loudest man in the room and he was not the best shooter. He was the man who slowed down when everyone else was speeding up.

What Scripture Says About This

The structure I have described is not a modern invention. It is in the Word, and it is older than the United States Army.

In Exodus 18, Moses is trying to judge all of Israel by himself. His father in law Jethro watches him do it for one day and tells him plainly that he is going to wear himself out, and the people with him, because the thing is too heavy for one man. Then he tells him how to fix it.

“Moreover, look for able men from all the people, men who fear God, who are trustworthy and hate a bribe, and place such men over the people as chiefs of thousands, of hundreds, of fifties, and of tens.” (Exodus 18:21, ESV)

Chiefs of tens. That is a squad leader. Notice what the qualifications actually are. Able, God fearing, trustworthy, and unwilling to be bought. That is a character list, not a skills list. Notice also that Jethro’s correction is delegation and structure. Moses was faithful and he was still wrong, because a good man doing everything himself is a good man about to fail.

Paul makes the second half of the argument in 1 Corinthians 12, where he describes the church as a body with many members and different functions, none of which can look at another and say it has no need of it. The hand does not do the eye’s job. The specialties are not a ranking. They are how a body works, and a body with only hands is not a stronger body. It is a corpse.

And in Nehemiah 4, when the wall was under threat, Nehemiah did not tell the people to pray and stop working. He set a guard, he armed the builders, he stationed families by clans with their swords and their spears and their bows, and he put a man with a trumpet beside him so the scattered work parties could rally to the sound. That is assigned positions, a communications plan, and a rally point. Nehemiah built a Readiness Team, and he did it while the wall was going up.

Preparation is not the opposite of faith. It never was.

Start This Week

Write down ten names. Not ten people you like. Ten people you would trust with your family, ranked by that standard alone. You will find that the list is shorter than you expected, and that is the most useful thing this article will do for you.

Then make one call. Not to pitch a bunker. Just to have coffee with the first man on the list and ask him what he would do if the power went out for two weeks. Listen to his answer. That conversation is the first drill.

The lone prepper is not strong. He is exposed, and he has confused a full garage for a plan. Build the team.

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BLUF

I was recently given a government threat bulletin that was distributed to law enforcement and security partners, not to the public. It warns that nihilistic violent extremist networks are encouraging their members to set forest fires, and it comes at the start of one of the driest fire seasons the West has seen. If you live in or near fire-prone country, you should assume that some fires this season will be set intentionally and that your warning time may be short. Harden your property, stage your evacuation gear now, and make sure you can communicate without a cell tower.

Key Judgments

• Highly Likely: Nihilistic violent extremist networks will continue promoting arson, including wildfire arson, through the summer.

• Likely: At least one significant wildfire in the Western United States this season will have a confirmed or suspected extremist connection.

• Likely: Intentionally set fires will be started in conditions that favor rapid spread, which shortens warning and evacuation time.

• Possible: Families in wildland-urban interface areas will face an evacuation decision this season with little or no official notice.

The Threat in Plain Terms

Nihilistic violent extremists, called NVEs in government reporting, are not driven by politics or religion. They commit violence for its own sake. These networks operate anonymously online, recruit young members, and require documented acts of violence and arson as a condition of membership. Over the past few months, several of these groups added forest arson to their membership requirements. One group released video of a member setting a brushfire that spread into a wooded area. Another publicly stated that forests would be burned. At the end of May, an arson manual that names forests as a target began circulating in these channels. I am not going to describe what is in it, and you do not need to know. What you need to know is that the material is out there, the people reading it have already acted, and setting a fire in drought conditions takes no skill.

The timing is what concerns me. Colorado declared a statewide Drought Emergency on June 4. Nearly 93 percent of the state is in moderate to exceptional drought after the lowest snowpack season on record, and much of the Mountain West is in similar shape. In a wet year, a fire like this stays small. In a year like this one, it can take a town.

Harden Your Property Now

If your home is in the wildland-urban interface, start with defensible space, and do it now while there is time. Cut brush back from your structures. Remove dead vegetation and anything that lets fire climb from the ground into the trees. Clean needles and leaves out of your gutters and off your roof. Move firewood away from the house. Keeping the first five feet around the structure clear of anything that burns gives your home a much better chance of surviving blowing embers, and embers are what take most homes.

After that, look at active protection. Roof and perimeter sprinkler systems that you can turn on as you leave will soak the structure and the ground around it, and they have saved homes in past fires. If you have a pool, a pond, or a stock tank, a gas-powered portable fire pump and a couple hundred feet of fire hose gives you the ability to wet your perimeter and knock down spot fires while the main fire is still at a distance. Add hand tools to that: a chainsaw, a good rake or a McLeod, and a shovel. Understand what this equipment is for. It buys your home a chance while you get your family out. It is not a reason to stay and fight a crown fire. When it is time to leave, leave.

The Five-Minute Bug-Out

A fire set on purpose in drought fuels can move faster than the official warning system. Your standard should be a five-minute departure. From the moment you decide to go, everyone and everything essential is loaded and the vehicle is moving within five minutes. The only way to meet that standard is to stage ahead of time. Keep documents, medications, cash, spare keys, and irreplaceable items in one container you can grab. Keep bags packed through fire season. Keep vehicles above half a tank and parked facing out. Give every member of the family one job in the load-out, including the kids, and rehearse it with a stopwatch. The first rehearsal will show you what you got wrong, which is the reason you rehearse.

Plan two routes out in different directions, because fire or traffic will close one of them. Pick a rally point outside the threat area in case the family is separated when it starts. Sign up for your county’s emergency alerts, but do not depend on them. The fires this bulletin warns about may not come with a notification.

Communications When You Have No Cell Coverage

If you spend time in the backcountry, or your home sits outside reliable cell coverage, put a ham radio in your kit this season. A handheld transceiver programmed with your local repeaters will get a report out from terrain where a phone will not. FCC rules allow anyone to transmit in a genuine emergency involving immediate threat to life or property, license or not. That exemption exists for real emergencies. It is not a substitute for getting your Technician license and learning your local repeater network now, while nothing is burning. A man who has never keyed that radio before is going to struggle with it under stress. Program the repeaters, learn the basic protocol, and carry the radio when you go into the woods this summer. Reporting a fire in its first ten minutes, before it gets into the canopy, may be the most useful thing a private citizen can do this entire season.

If You Witness

Arson in Progress

Now the hard scenario, and I want you to do more than read this. I want you to rehearse it in your mind, because you may be the only person in that forest.

You are hiking, hunting, or cutting wood, and you see a man setting a fire. If the first time your brain runs that picture is the moment it happens, you will lose seconds to disbelief. So run it ahead of time the way we trained it on the job. When I see ignition, I move to cover and distance. When I am behind cover, I start building my witness picture. When I have what responders need, I get the report out. Decisions made ahead of time are what separate the man who acts from the man who stands there watching it burn.

Cover and distance come first, every time. A person willing to burn a forest has already shown you what kind of man he is. These networks tell their members to expect confrontation, and you have no way of knowing what he is carrying. From a position of advantage, build your witness picture. Physical description from the ground up. Clothing. Vehicle, plate, and direction of travel. Exact location. Photograph or video from a position he cannot reach quickly. These offenders film their own attacks for status in the group, and your footage may be the evidence that convicts him. Then get your report out, by phone if you have signal and by radio if you do not, and stay available for responders.

There is a deeper question you need to settle before you ever lace up your boots. Would you intervene, and where is your line? Work through it at the kitchen table with a clear head, because you will not think clearly watching fire move through dry timber. Know your state’s law. In most states a citizen may use reasonable force to stop a violent felony in progress, but deadly force in defense of property alone is unlawful almost everywhere, and citizen’s arrest statutes vary a great deal from state to state. Then weigh the situation honestly. You are alone, out of cell range, dealing with an unknown subject, and the fire he just lit is growing behind you. Every minute you spend on him is a minute the fire goes unreported. Your training, your physical condition, who is with you, and your conscience all factor into where your line is, and I cannot draw it for you. I will tell you what I know after a career of taking people into custody. The fire is what kills people. The fastest way to stop it from killing people is early detection and an accurate report. The witness who puts the suspect in front of a prosecutor has stopped him just as completely as the man who went hands-on, and he carries far less risk doing it. Think it through now, decide where your lines are, and pray you never need them.

Threat Assessment

The overall threat level for prepared families in drought-affected Western states is ORANGE, high, through the end of this fire season. For the rest of the country the level is YELLOW, elevated, based on the broader extremist arson trend against structures and vehicles rather than wildfire specifically.

It is highly likely that these networks will continue calling for and attempting wildfire arson through the summer. The cost to them is nothing and the destruction is enormous, and that combination is exactly what draws them. It is likely that at least one major fire this season will have an extremist connection, though confirming it may take weeks or months because fire destroys most of its own evidence. It is also likely that intentionally set fires will be placed and timed for maximum spread, which means families should expect less warning than they would get from a lightning start or an escaped campfire. The primary concern for this audience is a fast-moving fire reaching homes and escape routes ahead of official evacuation orders. The secondary concern is the backcountry encounter, the hunter or hiker who comes upon ignition in progress and has to make sound decisions under pressure. Families in the wildland-urban interface should treat this season as a heightened readiness period. Defensible space should be cut now, water and pump capability staged, the five-minute drill rehearsed, and communications proven before they are needed.

Biblical Lens

The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it. — Proverbs 27:12 (ESV)

And we prayed to our God and set a guard as a protection against them day and night. — Nehemiah 4:9 (ESV)

Scripture treats preparation as wisdom, not as a lack of faith. The prudent man sees what is coming and acts before it arrives. Nehemiah’s people prayed and posted a watch at the same time, because the threat was real and the work still had to get done. This summer calls for the same approach. Trust God, and cut the brush, stage the bags, and carry the radio.

Leave a comment and tell me what your fire season preparations look like, and share this brief with your family and your preparedness group. The families that handle this season well will be the ones that did the work early.

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BLUF

Five measurable indicators show the systems American families depend on are under more strain right now than at any point since 2008. None of them require a prophet to read. A family that establishes a 30 day food and water baseline, builds a skills-based Readiness Team, and writes a communication plan before December 31 will be positioned for the probable, not the cinematic.

Key Judgments

• Highly Likely: Energy and supply chain disruption will continue through the end of 2026 even if the current Iran agreement holds, because damaged Gulf infrastructure will keep oil flows below pre-war levels until sometime next year.

• Likely: Grocery prices, led by beef, will continue rising faster than wages for the remainder of the year, driven by a US cattle herd at its lowest level in 75 years and fertilizer disruption from the Gulf, where roughly half of global urea and sulfur exports originate.

• Likely: Lone actors and small cells will attempt attacks against soft targets in the United States before the end of 2026, with community festivals, churches, and small-town gatherings during the America250 celebrations and the World Cup presenting the exposure hardened venues do not.

• Possible: A regional grid event, whether from extreme heat, a fuel constraint, or a cyberattack, will leave a portion of American households without power for longer than 72 hours before year end.

• Unlikely: A full systemic collapse of the US economy or grid in 2026. That is not what this brief argues. The argument is that the margins protecting your family have thinned in ways you can verify.

  

Signal One: Economic Instability

The federal government will spend $1 trillion on debt interest in 2026, a new milestone that exceeds the previous records by every measure, consuming 18.6 percent of all federal revenue. Interest is now the fastest growing category in the federal budget and surpasses spending on national defense. Debt held by the public stands at 101 percent of GDP and is projected to pass the World War II record within the decade.

At the family level, this shows up as inflation and borrowing costs. Inflation hit 4.2 percent in May, up from 2.4 percent in February, driven by oil prices from the Middle East conflict, and higher fertilizer costs are expected to raise food prices later this year. The Federal Reserve is now expected to raise rates before the end of the year rather than cut them. Nobody is scheduling a collapse. What the numbers show is a system with less room to absorb the next shock, and a government with less ability to help you if one comes.

Signal Two: Geopolitical Escalation

This one moved from theory to fact this year. The war with Iran that began February 28 closed the Strait of Hormuz to nearly all traffic, which the International Energy Agency called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Before the war, about 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil and 20 percent of global LNG moved through that strait. Europe saw fuel rationing, with Slovenia becoming the first EU country to introduce it.

The strait is open again, for now. The June 17 memorandum between the US and Iran opened a 60 day negotiation period, and the US struck Iran again just last week, which shows how fragile the agreement is. That window closes in mid-August. If talks fail, everything your grocery store and gas station depend on gets stressed again, and global oil inventories have already been drawn down at the fastest pace on record. The lesson of this spring is not that the system broke. It is that one waterway on the other side of the world reached into every American checkout line in about 90 days.

Signal Three: Soft Target Vulnerability

Federal assessments have said the same thing for several years, and 2026 sharpens it. The greatest terrorism threat to the homeland is lone offenders, often radicalized online, attacking soft targets with easily accessible weapons. This year the country hosts the America250 celebrations and the FIFA World Cup. The security footprint around headline venues will be heavy. The exposure is in the places that define everyday life: community festivals, churches, museum forecourts, and small-town commemorations, which are symbolic, densely packed, and largely unprotected. I read the bulletins that circulate in the law enforcement world. The pattern holds. The hardened target pushes the threat toward the soft one, and the soft one is where your family actually lives.

Signal Four: Infrastructure Fragility

The grid passed its summer report card, but read the fine print. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2026 assessment projects adequate resources for normal summer conditions, while New England and the Pacific Northwest sit at elevated risk of blackouts under extreme heat, and peak demand across the assessed areas grew 11 gigawatts in a single year. Their own reliability director cautioned that the improved numbers should not be read as overall risk declining, and a grid that clears a normal summer test on paper can still fail under correlated stress.

Add the cyber dimension. Extremist and foreign actors are targeting digital infrastructure, from election systems to public utilities, and technology has lowered the barrier so that small groups can inflict widespread damage. Whether the cause is heat, fuel, or a keyboard, the effect at your house is the same. The well pump stops. The refrigerator stops. The cell tower runs its battery down and goes dark.

Signal Five: Social Cohesion Breakdown

This is the signal the secular channels miss because it does not show up in a spreadsheet. A country under economic pressure, fed a constant diet of online outrage, with declining church attendance and fewer real relationships between neighbors, has less shock absorption than the same country had thirty years ago. In my law enforcement career I watched how communities respond to crisis. The neighborhoods that held together were the ones where people knew each other before the bad day came. You cannot surge trust. It has to be built in advance, the same as food storage, and the church should be the institution building it.

The Three Actions Before Year End

Action one is your food and water baseline. My standard is 30 days minimum, 90 days optimal. Most families cannot reach 90 right away, and that is fine. If you reach 30 days of food and water, you are better prepared than roughly 90 percent of the country. Water is one gallon per person per day, so a family of four needs 120 gallons for the month. Buy shelf stable food your family already eats and rotate it. Do not buy a pallet of survival buckets and call it done.

Action two is your Readiness Team. Look at how a fire team or an infantry squad is built. Every man and woman has an assigned specialty and everyone is cross-trained on the others. Your Readiness Team should work the same way. The assignments look like this:

• Medical. Owns trauma care, first aid supplies, and the group’s medication planning.

• Weapons and security. Owns defensive training, maintenance, and the security plan.

• Food production and gardening. Owns growing, preserving, and stretching the food supply.

• Sanitation. Owns water treatment, waste handling, and hygiene, which is what actually keeps a group alive in an extended event.

• Intelligence. Monitors conditions, reads the news and local situation, and keeps the group informed.

You do not need to come from those backgrounds. You need to accept the assignment, train for it, and prep for the whole group in your lane. A Readiness Team built this way is worth more than any amount of gear in your garage.

Action three is your family communication plan. The floor is a written plan, a designated rally point, and layered radio options. Your first layer is the cell phone, because it will work in most events. Your second layer is VHF, because infrastructure dependent systems fail exactly when everyone needs them at once, and cell towers have hours of battery, not days. Your third layer, if you can get there, is HF, which gives you regional reach when everything local is down. Write the plan on paper, put a copy in every vehicle, and walk each family member through it. A plan that lives in one person’s head is not a plan.

Threat Assessment

The overall threat level for American Christian families through the end of 2026 is elevated. It is highly likely that energy and food price pressure continues through December regardless of how the Iran negotiations resolve, because the physical damage to Gulf infrastructure and the depleted state of global oil inventories cannot be repaired by a signature. It is likely that the domestic threat environment stays hot through the America250 events, the World Cup, and the midterm election cycle, with lone actors remaining the primary concern and soft targets remaining the primary exposure. A prolonged regional grid failure is possible but not probable for any given household, which is exactly the category of risk a 30 day baseline is designed to cover. A systemic national collapse in 2026 is unlikely, and preparing as if it were certain leads to fear driven decisions, wasted money, and neglected fundamentals. The correct posture is steady, scheduled preparation: baseline supplies by fall, team assignments made and training started, communication plan written and rehearsed before the holidays. Watch the mid-August deadline on the Hormuz agreement. That is the nearest fork in the road, and you want your first 30 days squared away before you find out which way it goes.

Biblical Lens

“And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.” (Matthew 24:6, ESV)

Matthew 24 is not a fear chapter. It is a readiness chapter. Jesus told His disciples what to watch for so they would not be caught flat footed or swept into panic when the watching world lost its head. Notice the command in the middle of the verse. See that you are not alarmed. The Lord expects His people to observe the signals clearly and to keep working calmly. That is the whole posture of this brief. Fear should not set your schedule. Preparation should.

If this brief was useful to you, leave a comment and share it with your family or your Readiness Team. The signals are readable. The actions are doable. Get to work.

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Body Armor for the Prepared Christian: What Stops a Bullet and What Doesn’t

Body armor is one of those subjects where there is a lot of confident talk and not much real experience behind it. Most of what you read online comes from people who have never worn a vest for a full shift in hundred-degree heat, and who have certainly never watched what a round does when it slams into one. I have worn body armor for close to forty years. I started with soft armor early in my career, moved to plates later on, and over my last few videos I have shot the daylights out of both old and new armor so you can see with your own eyes what holds and what does not.

This one is for the prepared Christian who wants to protect his family and his congregation when trouble comes. Scripture does not leave us guessing about whether hard days are ahead of us. The warnings run all through Revelation, Daniel, and Isaiah. The question is not whether difficult times are coming. The question is what you are doing today to be ready for them.

Let me walk you through the two families of armor, what each one actually stops, and what I recommend depending on whether you are standing post on a security team or building out a preparedness plan for your home.

Soft Armor: The Layer You Will Actually Wear

Soft armor is built to stop handgun and shotgun rounds. That covers everything from a .22 up through a .44 Magnum, and good soft armor will take multiple hits without failing. I shot one of my older soft vests with a full magazine of 9mm, and every single round stopped in the first half of the layers. When I cut that vest open afterward, there was barely a dimple on the back side. I doubt it would have even cracked a rib.

The reason soft armor is the right starting point for most people is simple. The overwhelming majority of attacks you are likely to face involve a pistol, not a rifle. When someone brings violence into a church, it is almost always handgun ammunition. Soft armor handles that all day long, and it does it while staying concealable. I can wear a soft vest under a normal shirt and only a trained eye is going to pick up on it. That is exactly what you want on a security team, where blending in is part of the job.

Hard Armor: When You Need to Stop Rifle Rounds

Hard armor is a different animal. These are rigid plates that ride in a plate carrier, and they exist to do one thing soft armor cannot do, which is stop rifle rounds. The trade-off is weight and visibility. A loaded plate carrier is heavy, it wears on you over time, and anyone who sees you in one knows immediately that you are wearing rifle protection. There is no concealing it under a shirt.

You also need to be honest with yourself about the threat level you are actually planning for. My plates are rated to stop 5.56 green tip and other common rifle rounds. You will see armor advertised that stops 7.62 armor-piercing, and that is impressive, but realistically the chance of a civilian running into 7.62 AP is slim. Buy for the threat you are likely to meet, not the one that sounds the scariest in a sales listing.

One more thing on plate carriers. You can add side plates, and you should consider them, but even then you are left with gaps under the arms and along the sides. A lot of officers have been shot in exactly those areas. Plates protect your vital center, but they do not wrap you up.

The Combination Vest: Maximum Coverage for Preppers

There is a third option that gets overlooked, and it is the one I would personally wear if I were rolling out as a prepper expecting a fight. It combines large panels of soft armor running across the entire vest with a hard plate inserted in the center. So you get rifle protection over your vitals and soft protection covering the wider area that plates leave exposed.

A lot of guys running SWAT and similar operations strip down to plates only because it is lighter and faster. I understand the appeal, but I never thought that was the smart move. When I knew I was going into a situation where a firefight was likely, and I might face both rifle and pistol fire, I wanted coverage across those side areas, not just over my chest. Yes, the combination setup is heavier and bulkier. You know what is more uncomfortable than carrying a few extra pounds? Getting shot. That settles the argument for me every time.

If you are building a preparedness loadout, the combination vest or a plate carrier are both solid choices. Pick based on how much weight you are willing to carry and how much coverage you want.

Backface Deformation and the Five-Year Rule

Here is the part most people skip over, and it is where the technology has really moved. When a round hits your armor and the armor stops it, that energy does not just disappear. It pushes back against the panel and into your body. That is called backface deformation, and it is what breaks ribs, bruises organs, and lands you in the hospital even when the bullet never gets through.

Older armor stops the round, but it lets a lot more of that energy reach you. I shot my 31-year-old vest with everything from a .22 up to double-aught buck at point-blank range, and it held. But the newer stuff manages that backface energy dramatically better. The new vest I shot with a full mag of 9mm left almost nothing behind it.

This is why armor carries an expiration date. Manufacturers rate soft armor for five years. For a civilian, if you have held onto a vest for ten years and treated it well, I think it will still do its job. Past that, I would replace it, mostly because the technology has improved so much that you are leaving real protection on the table by hanging onto old gear. If you cannot afford to replace older armor right now, do not throw it out. It will still stop rounds. You will just spend more time recovering afterward.

The $300 Option Worth Knowing About

For my church security people, there is a product I genuinely did not believe in until I tested it. It is soft armor built into an Under Armour style shirt. I honestly thought it was a gimmick when it showed up. It is not. In my testing it performed better than the duty armor I wore at the end of my career, and it runs around $300. You can add side panels for a little more. For a security volunteer who needs protection that disappears under street clothes and does not announce itself, that is hard to beat.

While we are talking ammunition, one quick note from the shooting tests. Speer Gold Dot is the best self-defense round I tested. It is a hollow point, and it flattened out and expanded perfectly every time. Soft armor stopped it cold, including .44 Magnum and even decades-old ammunition that still performed like the day it was loaded.

What I Actually Recommend

Let me make this simple based on where you stand.

If you are on a church security team, wear soft armor. Spend the extra few dollars to add side protection, and take a serious look at that concealable armor shirt. It will stop the handgun threat you are most likely to face, and nobody in the building will know you are wearing it.

If you are a prepper, start with concealable soft armor at a minimum. That lets you move through town as a gray man, looking completely ordinary while still being protected against the pistol round you are most likely to encounter, even in a worst-case world. Then add plates in a carrier, or step up to the combination soft-and-hard vest, for the times you expect to face rifle fire. Soft underneath for everyday movement, hard on top when the threat climbs.

I keep a list of the specific gear I use and trust over at christianwarriortraining.com. I cannot always link armor products on YouTube without the platform throwing a fit, so that is where to find what I actually run.

Closing Thoughts

None of this gear is the point. It is a tool. The reason I wear armor, and the reason I teach this, is that I have a family I want to come home to and people who depend on me to be there. Scripture puts that responsibility on us plainly. “But if anyone does not provide for his relatives, and especially for members of his household, he has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever” (1 Timothy 5:8, ESV). Providing includes protecting.

Jesus Himself used the picture of a man prepared to guard what was his. “When a strong man, fully armed, guards his own house, his goods are safe” (Luke 11:21, ESV). Being ready is not a failure of faith. It is faithfulness with the people God has placed in your care. We are in a spiritual battle, and we are also living in a world where evil shows up at the door wearing flesh. Prepare for both.

If this breakdown helped you, leave a comment and tell me what armor you are running or what questions you still have. Share it with your pastor or your team leader so the people standing post with you are working from the same information. And if you want to keep this kind of content coming, consider upgrading to a paid subscription. Paid subscribers are what keep Christian Warrior Prepper going and let me keep testing gear so you do not have to guess.

Remember your ABCs. Always Be Carrying.

Copyright © 2026 Keith Graves. All rights reserved.